000
ABNT20 KNHC 251516
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KAREN...LOCATED ABOUT 1515 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 180 MILES EAST OF
TAMPICO MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF ST. KITTS IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING
LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE LOW SHOULD MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING SQUALLY WEATHER TO THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE BRITISH AND US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WESTERN CUBA
AND THE WESTERN BAHAMAS IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. SURFACES PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING AT THIS TIME AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA