000
ABNT20 KNHC 200856
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.  SATELLITE
IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...THE
ENVIRONMENT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR A SUBTROPICAL OR A
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS 
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY.  ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
WEATHER DISTURBANCE.

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF INGRID. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI