000 ABNT20 KNHC 011504 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY HAS MOVED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A WELL DEFINED CENTER BUT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SQUALLS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION COULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL OR SUTROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER WESTERN CUBA AND WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30TH. THE LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 11... 6...AND 2...RESPECTIVELY. THE NOAA SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST IS PROJECTING 13 TO 17 NAMED STORMS...7 TO 10 HURRICANES...AND 3 TO 5 MAJOR HURRICANES DURING 2007. THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2007 IS AS FOLLOWS: NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION ------------------------------------------------------------- ANDREA LORENZO BARRY MELISSA CHANTAL SHAN TAHL- NOEL DEAN OLGA ERIN AIR- IN PABLO PA- BLOW FELIX FEEL- IX REBEKAH GABRIELLE GA BREE EL- SEBASTIEN SAY BAS- TYAN HUMBERTO OOM BAIR- TO TANYA TAHN- YA INGRID VAN JERRY WENDY KAREN THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...IS ISSUED FOUR TIMES A DAY...AT 530 AM...1130 AM...530 PM AND 1030 PM EASTERN TIME. IT BRIEFLY DESCRIBES SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. A SEPARATE PRODUCT...THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT... MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO DESCRIBE STRONG OR FORMATIVE WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT HAVE NOT YET REACHED TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT IS ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WONT41 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIADSAAT. A STANDARD PACKAGE OF TEXT PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION...AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INTRODUCED IN 2006...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. ALL ADVISORY PACKAGES INCLUDE A SET OF GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS...INCLUDING WIND SPEED PROBABILITY GRAPHICS THAT WERE ALSO INTRODUCED IN 2006. AN ADDITIONAL TEXT PRODUCT...WITH WHICH USERS MAY BE LESS FAMILIAR...IS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO NOTIFY USERS OF CHANGES THAT OTHER COUNTRIES MAKE TO THEIR WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS ALSO SOMETIMES ISSUED TO ALERT USERS THAT A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE IS ABOUT TO BE RELEASED. TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADERS WTNT61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADERS MIATCUAT1-5. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV. THE 2007 SEASON GOT OFF TO AN EARLY START WHEN SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA FORMED DURING MAY. ANDREA ORIGINATED FROM A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD FORMED OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON 6 MAY...AND GRADUALLY ACQUIRED SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANDREA BECAME A SUBTROPICAL STORM WHILE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA ON 9 MAY. NORTHERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR CAUSED ANDREA TO WEAKEN BELOW STORM STRENGTH ON 10 MAY AND TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON 11 MAY. THE REMNANT LOW LATER BECAME ABSORBED BY A FRONT ON 14 MAY. ANDREA WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR NO DIRECT DEATHS...ALTHOUGH 5 PEOPLE DROWNED AS A RESULT OF THE PRECURSOR EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. BEACH EROSION IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW. $$ FORECASTER AVILA