000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131521
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon May 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of NW Costa Rica near
10N86W to a 1010 mb low pres near 10N102W and to 07N122W. The
ITCZ stretches from 07N122W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is observed from 05N to 15N and east of
109W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 04N to 09N
and between 133W and 139W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad subtropical ridge over the North Pacific extends
southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient
between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in NW 
Mexico support moderate to fresh NW winds in the offshore waters 
of Baja California. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, 
including the Gulfs of California and Tehuantepec, light to 
locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW winds, and 
moderate seas or less, will prevail off the Baja California 
waters through late this week. Pulsing of moderate to locally 
fresh gap winds will push through the mountain passages of Baja 
California into the Gulf of California at night through much of 
the week. Gentle to locally moderate winds and moderate seas are 
expected elsewhere across the open offshore waters of Mexico 
through late this week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure pattern persists across the region. Moderate to 
locally fresh southerly winds are present south of the monsoon 
trough, along with seas of 5-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds are 
forecast south of the monsoon trough through the end of the 
week. Southerly swell moving through the regional waters will 
support seas of 6-7 ft south of the Galapagos Islands through 
much of the forecast period. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds 
will prevail with moderate seas of 6 ft or less. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1027 mb high pressure system centered well north of our area
continues to dominate the remainder of the tropical eastern 
Pacific. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge 
and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in moderate to 
locally fresh easterly winds from 06N to 20N and west of 125W. 
Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and 
moderate seas are expected in the trade wind zone N of the ITCZ 
to near 20N and W of 120W through the forecast period. Winds will
freshen south of the monsoon trough in the eastern part of the 
basin toward the end of the week.

$$
Delgado