000 AXPZ20 KNHC 311627 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Dec 31 2023...Corrected Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force northerly gap winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through mid-morning today before diminishing below gale force later this morning. Seas of 12 ft will begin to subside this afternoon. Large Swell Event Across Eastern Pacific: Large NW swell of 12 to 15 ft is occurring north of 05N and west of 112W, and southeast of a line from 30N125W to 19N140W. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are NW of the line extending from 30N125W to 19N140W. Over the southern and eastern portions of the area, seas of 8 ft or greater extend southward beyond the Equator, and as far east as 95W, which is merging with swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. This swell, in addition to another reinforcing NW swell from an incoming cold front across the NW waters from 30N130W to 27N138W, will continue to spread south and east across the waters through Mon. Seas will subside below 12 ft by Mon evening. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details on both special features. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 06N91W. The ITCZ extends from 06N91W to 04N102W to 06N125W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 78W and 92W, and from 03.5N to 09N between 107W and 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features Section above for details on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Scatterometer data overnight confirmed gentle to moderate NNW winds prevailing across the Baja California offshore waters. Large NW swell is impacting the waters, ranging from 11 to 14 ft. Seas of 12 ft or greater are occurring west of 111.5W. In the Gulf of California, gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are present. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere offshore Mexico outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas across the southern and southwestern Mexico offshore waters are 7 to 10 ft in NW swell. For the forecast, the large NW swell impacting the Baja California offshore waters will subside below 12 ft by this evening. Seas of 8 to 11 ft across most of the southwest and southern Mexico offshore waters will subside by Tue. A cold front will move through the Baja California offshore waters late tonight through Mon. This will keep seas around 8 to 10 ft west of Baja California through Tue before subsiding Tue night. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong winds this afternoon will increase to strong to near gale force N winds by Mon evening. These winds will diminish by Tue night. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec should begin Wed night, with strong to near-gale force N winds possible through Thu night. Another large swell event will move in west of Baja California Norte by Wed night as the next cold front reaches the area. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo region, with seas to 7 ft in mixed swell. Seas of 7 to 9 ft in NW to N swell is noted offshore Guatemala due to a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Moderate N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, quiescent marine conditions dominate the waters with gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, a building ridge north of the area will support fresh to strong NE gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo through Wed. Seas will build to 8 to 9 ft today and continue through Wed. Meanwhile, a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will wind down by this evening, but seas of 7 to 8 ft will continue offshore Guatemala and El Salvador through mid-week due to continued NW swell over the area. Fresh N winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Panama through Tue night. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will result in moderate or lighter winds across the rest of the area through early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features Section above for details on the large NW swell across most of the forecast waters. The pressure gradient between high pressure ridging along 25N and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ is yielding fresh to strong NE trades from 07N to 21N and west of 125W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted elsewhere from the ITCZ to 22N, and west of 115W. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, winds are moderate or less. A cold front extends from 30N130W to 27N138W with fresh strong winds on both sides of the front, north of 28N between 127W and 134W. East of 95W, seas are 5 to 8 ft. For the forecast, see the Special Features section above for details on the large swell over much of our forecast waters. The current NW swell will subside to the 8 to 12 ft range across most of the area by tonight. Elsewhere, the cold front will reach from 30N124W to 25N134W this evening, then weaken by Mon evening as it approaches Baja California. Fresh to strong winds are expected north of 27N with this front. High pressure building across the northwest waters will enhance NE trades between the ITCZ and 20N, and to the west of 125W through most of the week, bringing fresh to strong winds and 8 to 12 ft seas to the area. $$ Hagen