000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270805
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Dec 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning Far NW Waters: A cold front will move SE into the
far NW waters tonight into Thu, increasing winds in the far NW 
waters to gale force N of 26N and W of 130W into Fri. A 
significant NW swell associated with this front will spread SE 
and lead to seas in excess of 12 ft for most waters N of 10N and 
W of 120W Thu into the weekend. Seas in the far NW waters may 
peak as high as 30 ft Thu night into Fri night. 

Please, refer to the High Seas Forecast, issued by the National 
Hurricane Center, at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N85W to 07N99W and to 09N108W. The ITCZ extends from 07N116W 
to 06N128W and beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
occurring from 02N to 09N and east of 90W and from 04N to 08N W 
of 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A 1022 mb high pressure system centered near 29N123W continues 
to dominate the offshore waters of Mexico. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressures over Mexico supports fresh
NW winds in the central and southern parts of the Gulf of 
California along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Moderate NW winds and 
2-4 ft seas are prevalent in the remainder of the Gulf waters. 
Gentle to moderate N winds are occurring near and N of the 
Revillagigedo Islands, with light to gentle winds to the south. 
Seas in the area of moderate winds are 7 to 10 ft in long period 
NW swell, with 4 to 7 ft seas to the south. 

For the forecast, as high pressure builds southward from the United
States, fresh NW winds are expected over the Gulf of California
and near Cabo Corrientes today, with gentle to moderate winds 
elsewhere. NW swell will impact the Baja California offshore 
waters into tonight, then a new reinforcing NW swell will arrive
Thu. Seas may exceed 12 ft offshore Baja California Thu night 
through Fri night. Looking ahead, as the aforementioned high 
pressure builds into the western Gulf of Mexico, strong gap winds
will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu, strengthening to 
gale force on Fri night through Sat. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Benign marine conditions dominate the waters, with mainly gentle
winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft. Locally higher winds and seas are
present in scattered moderate convection that has developed
offshore Panama and Costa Rica in association with the monsoon 
trough. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will result in 
moderate or weaker winds into the week. A building ridge north 
of the area is likely to support fresh to strong gap winds in the
Papagayo region Sat night into early next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features Section Above for details on gales that will
develop over the far NW waters tonight. 

A cold front extends from near 30N136W to 26N140W. Strong to 
SW winds are ahead of this front N of 27N and W of 132W. Fresh to
strong W to NW winds are occurring behind this front. Seas in 
this area of fresh and strong winds are 14 to 20 ft, on both 
sides of the cold front. Long period NW swell continues to
propagate further into the waters, and now encompasses waters NW
of a line from 23N140W to 30N130W. 

N of the ITCZ, moderate to locally fresh trades prevail up to 
18N, with locations N of 18N, excluding waters impacted by the
aforementioned cold front, having light to gentle winds 
dominated by high pressure centered near 29N123W. Seas N of the 
ITCZ are 8 to 11 ft in long period NW swell. Elsewhere over the 
waters, winds are moderate or less and seas are generally 5 to 7 
ft. 

For the forecast, the initial cold front will move SE through the
area and dissipate by this evening. See the Special Features
section above for details on the second cold front, that will
cause gale conditions over portions of the waters. Elsewhere,
weakening high pressure will dominate, leading to generally
gentle to moderate winds through the week. A significant NW 
swell will spread SE and lead to seas in excess of 12 ft for 
most waters N of 10N and W of 120W Thu into the weekend. Seas in 
the far NW waters may peak as high as 30 ft Thu night into Fri 
night.

$$
Konarik