321 
AXPZ20 KNHC 270209
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Dec 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N85W to 07N99W and to 09N108W. The ITCZ extends from 07N116W 
to 06N128W and beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
occurring from 02N to 09N and east of 90W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A 1022 mb high pressure system centered near 29N123W continues 
to dominate the offshore waters of Mexico. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressures over Mexico support fresh 
to locally strong NW winds in the central and southern parts of 
the Gulf of California along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Moderate NW
winds and 2-4 ft seas are prevalent in the remainder of the Gulf
waters. Mainly moderate N winds are occurring near and N of the
Revillagigedo Islands, with light to gentle winds to the south.
Seas in the area of moderate winds are 7 to 10 ft in long period
NW swell, with 4 to 7 ft seas to the south. 

For the forecast, as high pressure builds southward from the United
States, fresh NW winds are expected over the Gulf of California
and near Cabo Corrientes through Wed, with gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere. NW swell will impact the Baja California
offshore waters into Wed night, then a new reinforcing NW swell 
will arrive Thu. Seas may exceed 12 ft offshore Baja California
Thu night through Fri night. Looking ahead, as the aforementioned
high pressure builds into the western Gulf of Mexico, strong gap
winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu, strengthening
to gale force on Fri night through Sat. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds continue across the Gulf 
of Papagayo region, also affecting the nearshore waters of 
southern Nicaragua. Moderate southerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft 
are evident south of 04N. Seas N of 04N are 2 to 4 ft. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will result in 
moderate or weaker winds through late week. A building ridge 
north of the area is likely to support fresh to strong gap winds 
in the Papagayo region Sat night into early next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from near 30N138W to 28N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 90 nm E of this front. Strong
to near gale force SW winds are ahead of this front N of 27N and
W of 132W. Strong W to NW winds are occurring behind this front.
Seas in this area of strong winds are 12 to 18 ft, on both sides
of the cold front.

N of the ITCZ, moderate to fresh trades prevail up to 20N, with
waters N of 20N having light to gentle winds dominated by high
pressure centered near 29N123W. Seas N of the ITCZ are 8 to 11
ft, in long period NW swell. Elsewhere over the waters, winds are
moderate or less and seas are generally 5 to 7 ft. 

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and dissipate Wed,
but another cold front will follow it Wed night into Thu,
increasing winds in the far NW waters further, to gale force, N
of 26N and W of 130W, into Fri. A significant NW swell 
associated with this front will spread SE and lead to seas in 
excess of 12 ft for most waters N of 10N and W of 120W Thu into 
the weekend. Seas in the far NW waters may peak as high as 30 ft 
Thu night into Fri night.

$$
Konarik