000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262200 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Dec 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2135 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to 06N100W and to 07N116W. The ITCZ extends from 07N116W to 06N128W and beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 02N to 09N and east of 89W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 03N to 11N and west of 110W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1024 mb high pressure system centered near 29N123W continues to dominate the offshore waters of Mexico. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Mexico support fresh to locally strong NW winds in the central and southern parts of the Gulf of California. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Moderate NW winds and 2-4 ft seas are prevalent in the remainder of the Gulf waters. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are found in the offshore waters of Baja California south of Punta Eugenia. Seas in the area described are 6-9 ft. Light to gentle northerly winds and seas of 7-10 ft are evident north of Punta Eugenia due to a large region of NW swell. A plume of mid to upper level moisture coupled with divergence aloft is leading to cloudiness and a few showers extending from the SW Mexican offshore waters to central Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are prevalent in the SW Mexican offshore waters and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, as high pressure builds southward from the United States, fresh NW winds are expected over the Gulf of California and near Cabo Corrientes through Wed, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. NW swell will impact the Baja California offshore waters through Wed night, then a new reinforcing NW swell will arrive Thu. Looking ahead, as the aforementioned high pressure builds into the western Gulf of Mexico, strong gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu, strengthening to gale force on Fri night and Sat. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered moderate convection is evident on satellite imagery in the offshore waters of Panama and Colombia. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to strong southerly winds are occurring with the strongest convection. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds continue across the Gulf of Papagayo region, also affecting the nearshore waters of southern Nicaragua. Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft. Moderate southerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are evident south of 04N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will result in moderate or weaker winds through late week. However, building ridge north of the area is likely to support fresh to strong gap winds in the Papagayo region late Sat into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is entering the northwest waters of the eastern tropical Pacific, but no deep convection is associated with this feature. The pressure gradient between the cold front and a 1024 mb ridge near 29N123W sustain strong to near gale-force SW winds north of 27N and west of 133W. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 12-16 ft. Moderate to fresh SW-S winds and seas of 9-12 ft are prevalent north of 25N and west of 127W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ support a large area of moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds, mainly north of the ITCZ to 24N and west of 105W. Wave heights in the area described are 7-10 ft primarily due to long-period NW swell. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the significant NW swell will propagate SE into the middle of the week. The cold front entering the NW waters will sustain strong to near gale-force winds on both sides of it N of 28N through Wed. This front will dissipate by Wed night. Another cold front will enter the NW waters bringing strong to possibly gale-force winds N of 25N and W of 125W Thu into Fri. A significant NW swell associated with this front will spread SE and lead to seas in excess of 12 ft for most waters N of 10N and W of 120W Thu into the weekend. Seas in the far NW waters may peak as high as 30 ft Thu night through Fri night. $$ Delgado