000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261548 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Dec 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N85W to 06N117W. The ITCZ extends from 06N117W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 09N and east of 90. Isolated moderate convection is present from 03N to 10N and west of 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1023 mb high pressure system positioned well west of Baja California Norte extends southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The weak pressure gradient supports moderate or weaker winds across the Baja California offshore waters. Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft in NW swell, with the highest seas occurring near 30N120W. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are found in the central and southern portions of the Gulf of California, along with seas of 3-5 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail in the rest of the Gulf. A plume of mid to upper level moisture coupled with divergence aloft is leading to scattered moderate convection extending from the SW Mexican offshore waters to central Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are prevalent in the SW Mexican offshore waters and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, as high pressure builds southward from the United States, fresh NW winds are expected over the Gulf of California and near Cabo Corrientes through Wed, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. New NW swell will impact the Baja California offshore waters through Wed night, then a new reinforcing NW swell will arrive Thu. Looking ahead, as the aforementioned high pressure builds into the western Gulf of Mexico, strong gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu, strengthening to gale force on Fri night and Sat. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Weak high pressure north of the area sustain moderate winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate southerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are evident south of 04N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, winds are expected to be moderate or weaker through late week as a weak pressure gradient dominates. Fresh to strong gap winds may develop in the Papagayo region Sat, as high pressure builds S toward the western Caribbean. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1023 mb ridge north of the area dominates the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and a cold front west of the area support fresh to strong SW winds north of 27N and west of 133W. Seas in these waters are 12-15 ft. Long-period NW swell is leading to seas in excess of 8 ft north of 05N and W of 115W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds prevail in the area described. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the significant NW swell will propagate SE into the middle of the week. A cold front will move into the NW waters tonight, bringing strong winds on both sides of it N of 28N through Wed. This front will dissipate by Wed night, but significant NW swell associated with this front will spread SE and lead to seas in excess of 12 ft for most waters N of 10N and W of 120W Thu into the weekend. Seas in the far NW waters may peak as high as 28 ft Thu night through Fri night. $$ Delgado