000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260818
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Dec 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 05N103W. The ITCZ 
extends from 05N103W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 04N to 09N W of 125W and from 03N to 06N E of 87W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gentle to moderate NW winds dominate waters N of 16N, except for
fresh NW winds over the central and southern Gulf of California.
To the south, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas average 3 to 6
ft, including the Gulf of California, except 6 to 9 ft offshore 
Baja California in NW swell. A plume of mid and upper level
moisture coupled with divergence aloft is leading to scattered
moderate convection in a band extending SW from near Cabo
Corrientes. 

For the forecast, as high pressure builds southward from the United
States, fresh NW winds are expected over the Gulf of California
and near Cabo Corrientes through Wed, with gentle to moderate 
winds elsewhere. New NW swell will impact the Baja California 
offshore waters through Wed night, then a new reinforcing NW 
swell will arrive Thu. Looking ahead, as the aforementioned high 
pressure builds into the western Gulf of Mexico, strong gap winds
will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu, strengthening to 
gale force on Fri night and Sat. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient and lack of significant features or
swell is leading to benign marine conditions across the area. 
Winds are mainly gentle with seas of 3 to 6 ft. 

For the forecast, winds are expected to be moderate or weaker 
through late week as a weak pressure gradient dominates. Fresh 
to strong gap winds may develop in the Papagayo region Sat, as 
high pressure builds S toward the western Caribbean. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Long-period NW swell is leading to seas in excess of 8 ft N of 08N
and W of 118W. Seas in the far NW waters near 30N140W are near 
12 ft. Elsewhere seas are generally 5 to 7 ft. Tradewinds N of 
the ITCZ, up to around 20N, are moderate to fresh. A cold front
is approaching the NW waters, and SW winds ahead of it are
increasing to fresh, with mainly gentle winds elsewhere. A weak 
high pressure is centered near 30N130W, with nearby winds light 
and variable. 

For the forecast, the NE trades will weaken to moderate across 
the waters tonight. The significant swell NW swell will 
propagate SE into the middle of the week, with reinforcing swell 
in excess of 12 ft, reaching areas N of 25N and W of 135W today.
A cold front will move into the NW waters tonight, bringing 
strong winds on both sides of it N of 28N through Wed. This front
will dissipate by Wed night, but significant NW swell associated
with this front will spread SE and lead to seas in excess of 12 
ft for most waters N of 10N and W of 120W Thu into the weekend. 
Seas in the far NW waters may peak as high as 27 ft Thu night 
through Fri night.

$$
Konarik