000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251534
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Dec 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N84W to 04N9101W. The ITCZ 
extends from 04N101W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 04N to 09N and W of 116W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gentle to moderate NW winds dominate waters N of 18N, except for 
fresh NW winds that are developing the the central and southern 
Gulf of California. To the south, light to gentle winds prevail. 
Seas average 3 to 6 ft, except 6 to 8 ft offshore Baja California
Norte in NW swell. Seas in the Gulf of California are 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, as high pressure builds southward from the 
United States, fresh NW winds are expected over the Gulf of 
California and near Cabo Corrientes into Wed, with gentle to 
moderate winds elsewhere. New NW swell will arrive tonight for 
waters offshore Baja California Norte, then prevail through Wed 
night. Looking ahead, as the aforementioned high pressure builds 
into the western Gulf of Mexico, strong gap winds will develop in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu, then continue into Fri night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient and lack of significant features or
swell is leading to benign marine conditions across the area. 
Winds are mainly gentle to moderate with seas of 3 to 6 ft. The 
only exception is around the gulfs of Papagayo and Panama, where 
moderate gap winds are pulsing.

For the forecast, winds are expected to be moderate or weaker 
into late week. Looking ahead, fresh to strong gap winds may 
redevelop in the Papagayo region Fri night, as high pressure 
builds S toward the western Caribbean.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A new set of long period NW swell has spilled into NW waters,
with seas now above 12 ft N of 24N and W of 130W. Seas of 8 to 12
ft prevail elsewhere from N of 08N and W of 117W. Trade winds N 
of the ITCZ extending to near 25N are moderate to fresh, with 
mainly gentle winds elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the NE trades will weaken to moderate across 
the waters today. The significant swell in the NW waters will 
propagate SE into the middle of the week, with seas exceeding 12 
ft in the far NW waters through tonight. A cold front will move 
into the NW waters Tue night, bringing strong winds on both sides
of it N of 28N through Wed. This front will dissipate by Wed
night, but reinforcing significant NW swell associated with this
front will spread SE and lead to seas in excess of 12 ft for 
most waters N of 10N and W of 120W Thu through the end of the 
week. Seas in the far NW waters may peak around 25 ft during 
this period. 

$$
ERA