000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250800
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Dec 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 04N97W. The ITCZ 
extends from 04N97W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 04N to 11N between 113W and 132W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gentle to moderate NW winds dominate waters N of 18N, except for
locally fresh NW winds that are developing the the central and
southern Gulf of California. To the south, light to gentle winds
prevail. Seas average 3 to 6 ft, except 6 to 8 ft offshore Baja
California Norte in NW swell. Seas in the Gulf of California are
2 to 4 ft. 

For the forecast, as high pressure builds southward from the 
United States, fresh NW winds are expected over the Gulf of 
California and near Cabo Corrientes into Wed, with gentle to 
moderate winds elsewhere. New NW swell swell will arrive
tonight for waters offshore Baja California Norte, then prevail 
through Wed night. Looking ahead, as the aforementioned high 
pressure builds into the western Gulf of Mexico, strong gap 
winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu, then continue 
into Fri night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient and lack of significant features or
swell is leading to benign marine conditions. Winds are mainly
gentle to moderate with seas of 3 to 6 ft. The only exception
is around the gulfs of Papagayo and Panama, where moderate to
fresh gap winds have pulsed overnight.

Winds are expected to be moderate or weaker into late week. 
Looking ahead, fresh gap winds may redevelop in the Papagayo 
region Fri night, as high pressure builds S toward the western 
Caribbean.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A new set of long period NW swell has spilled into NW waters,
with seas now above 8 ft NW of a line from 20N140W to 30N130W.
Seas have increased to near 11 ft near 30N140W. Elsewhere, seas
are 6 to 8 ft N of the ITCZ, and 5 to 7 ft to the S. Trade winds
N of the ITCZ extending to near 25N are moderate to fresh, with
mainly gentle winds elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the NE trades will weaken to moderate across 
the waters today. The significant swell in the NW waters will 
propagate SE into the middle of the week, with seas exceeding 12 
ft in the far NW waters through tonight. A cold front will move 
into the NW waters Tue night, bringing strong winds on both sides
of it N of 28N through Wed. This front will dissipate by Wed
night, but reinforcing significant NW swell associated with this
front will spread SE and lead to seas in excess of 12 ft for 
most waters N of 10N and W of 120W Thu through the end of the 
week. Seas in the far NW waters may peak around 20 ft during this
period. 

$$ Konarik