000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250211
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Dec 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 04N97W. The ITCZ 
extends from 04N97W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 04N to 12N between 109W and 131W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gentle to moderate NW winds dominate waters N of 18N, with light
to gentle winds to the south, due to a weak pressure gradient. 
Seas average 3 to 6 ft, except 6 to 6 ft offshore Baja 
California Norte in NW swell. Seas in the Gulf of California are
2-3 ft. 

For the forecast, as high pressure builds southward from the 
United States, fresh NW winds are expected over the Gulf of 
California and near Cabo Corrientes tonight into Wed, with gentle
to moderate winds elsewhere. NW swell will diminishing offshore 
Baja California Norte overnight, but NW swell swell will arrive 
Mon night, then prevail through Wed night. Looking ahead, as the 
aforementioned high pressure builds into the western Gulf of 
Mexico, strong gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
Thu, then continue into Fri night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient and lack of significant features or
swell is leading to benign marine conditions. Winds are mainly
gentle to moderate with seas of 3 to 6 ft. 

For the forecast, fresh NE winds will pulse over the gulfs of 
Papagayo and Panama tonight. Elsewhere, winds are expected to be 
moderate or weaker into late week. Looking ahead, fresh gap winds
may redevelop in the Papagayo region Fri night, as high pressure
builds S toward the western Caribbean.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Decaying NW swell with seas of 8 to 9 ft is continuing to impact
the waters north of 07N and west of 120W. NE Winds in this area 
are generally moderate to fresh. Elsewhere, the trades are 
moderate or weaker with seas 5-7 ft. A new set of NW swell has
begun to enter NW waters around 30N140W. 

For the forecast, the NE trades will weaken to moderate across 
the waters Mon. New significant swell that is arriving tonight in
NW waters will propagate SE into the middle of the week, with
seas exceeding 12 ft in NW waters through Mon night. A cold 
front will move into the NW waters Tue night, bringing strong 
winds on both sides of it N of 28N through Wed. Reinforcing 
significant NW swell associated with this front will spread SE 
and lead to seas in excess of 12 ft for most waters N of 10N and 
W of 120W for the end of the week. 

$$
Konarik