000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220819
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Dec 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure centered over 
the W Gulf of Mexico along with lower pressures over the tropical
E Pacific are forcing gale-force N gap winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Gale conditions will continue over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec this morning, then diminish to strong to near- gale 
force through Sat. Current peak seas are near 11 ft. 

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 05N78W
to 05N91W. The ITCZ extends from 05N91W to 08N117W to beyond 
05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted from 03N-07N between 96-111W, and from 04N-09N west of 
129W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on the 
ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. 

A cold front extends from 30N117W to 22N126W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring SE of this frontal boundary and N of 
28N.Moderate to fresh winds are behind this front. Otherwise, a 
weak pressure gradient prevails across the area with moderate or 
less winds occurring. Seas are 3-6 ft in the Pacific, except for 
waters west of Baja California Norte where seas are 7-11 ft in NW
swell. Seas in the Gulf of California are 1-2 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE through waters W 
of Baja California as well as most of the Gulf of California 
through today before gradually dissipating into the weekend. 
Elsewhere, winds across the area will be moderate or weaker. At 
the extended range, high pressure building over the U.S. Great 
Basin should funnel fresh to strong NW winds over the Gulf of 
California Mon through Tue night. Large NW swell will propagate 
southeastward across the waters west of Baja California through 
today before diminishing Sat. Looking ahead, another set of 
large NW swell will move into the Baja California Norte waters 
Sun through early next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A high pressure centered NE of the area is forcing fresh to 
strong NE winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas are 7 to 
9 ft. Fresh N winds are also occurring over the Gulf of Panama 
with seas 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. 
Large NW swell with seas to 8 ft in the Guatemala offshore 
waters are being generated by Gulf of Tehuantepec gales.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will prevail over the
Gulf of Papagayo region into Sat. Fresh N winds will continue 
over the Gulf of Panama until diminishing to moderate today. 
Elsewhere, winds are expected to be moderate or weaker for the 
next several days. Large NW swell generated by Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gales will continue to impact the Guatemala- El 
Salvador offshore waters through tonight. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Large NW swell with seas of 10 to 14 ft and a 12-14 second 
period are continuing to impact the waters north of 24N between 
120W-135W. These seas will gradually diminish today, but remain
above 8 ft through Sat. 

A cold front extends from 30N117W southwestward to 22N126W. 
Winds are fresh and NW behind the front north of 28N. In 
addition to the large NW swell described above, NW swell of 8 ft 
or more are occurring north of a line from 16N140W to 24N120W. 
For the remainder of the waters, the NE trades are fresh 07N-16N
west of 133W, with seas 8-10 ft. Elsewhere, the trades are 
moderate or weaker with seas 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front and an accompanying low center
will progress eastward with NW winds north of 25N east of 125W
dropping below fresh tonight as the low dissipates and the front
weakens. Likewise, the NE trades will weaken to moderate across 
the waters Sat. The large NW swell will continue propagating 
southeastward while gradually diminishing. 8 ft or greater seas 
with the swell will reach from 10N140W to 23W117W tonight. 
Elsewhere, seas will be 6-8 ft.

$$
Konarik