596 AXPZ20 KNHC 220209 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Dec 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure centered over the W Gulf of Mexico along with lower pressures over the tropical E Pacific are forcing gale-force N gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale conditions will continue over the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, before diminishing to strong to near-gale force through Sat. Current peak seas are near 12 ft. Eastern Pacific Significant Swell: Very large NW swell with seas of 12-16 ft and a 12-14 second period are continuing to impact the waters north of 26N between 124W-134W. As the swell continues to propagate southeastward, seas will subside below 12 ft by early Fri morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 07N78W to 05N88W. The ITCZ extends from 05N88W to 08N117W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N-07N between 96-110W, and from 03N-09N west of 129W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. A cold front extends from 30N118W to 22N125W. Aside from the gale in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a weak pressure gradient prevails across the area with moderate or less winds occurring this afternoon. Seas are 3-6 ft in the Pacific, except for waters west of Baja California Norte where seas are 7-11 ft in NW swell. Seas in the Gulf of California are 1-2 ft. For the forecast, the cold front will move SE through waters W of Baja California as well as most of the Gulf of California through Fri before gradually dissipating into the weekend. Elsewhere, winds across the area will be moderate or weaker. At the extended range, high pressure building over the U.S. Great Basin should funnel fresh to strong NW winds over the Gulf of California Mon through Tue night. Large NW swell will propagate southeastward across the waters west of Baja California through Fri before diminishing Sat. Looking ahead, another set of large NW swell will move into the Baja California Norte waters Sun through early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A high pressure centered NE of the area is forcing fresh to strong NE winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas are 8-10 ft. Fresh to locally strong N winds are also occurring over the Gulf of Panama with seas 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Large NW swell with seas to 8 ft in the Guatemala-El Salvador offshore waters are being generated by Gulf of Tehuantepec gales. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo region into Sat. Fresh to locally strong N winds will continue over the Gulf of Panama until diminishing to moderate on Fri. Elsewhere, winds are expected to be moderate or weaker for the next several days. Large NW swell generated by Gulf of Tehuantepec gales will continue to impact the Guatemala- El Salvador offshore waters through Fri night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on significant swell currently affecting the N portion of the basin. A cold front extends from 30N118W southwestward to 21N130W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring SE of this frontal boundary and N of 28N. Winds are NW fresh to strong behind the front north of 28N. In addition to the very large NW swell described above, NW swell of 8 ft or more are occurring north of a line from 18N140W to 25N120W. For the remainder of the waters, the NE trades are fresh 07N-13N west of 135W and from 05N-10N east of 100W with seas 8-10 ft. Elsewhere, the trades are moderate or weaker with seas 5-7 ft. For the forecast, the cold front and an accompanying low center will progress eastward with NW winds north of 25N east of 125W dropping below fresh on Fri night as the low dissipates and the front weakens. Likewise, the NE trades will weaken to moderate across the waters Sat. The large NW swell will continue propagating southeastward while gradually diminishing. 8 ft or greater seas with the swell will reach from 10N140W to 23W117W Fri night. Elsewhere, seas will be 6-8 ft. $$ Konarik