000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202030 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Dec 20 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure along the eastern slopes of Mexico is enhancing northerly winds funneling through the Chivela Pass, which is supporting gale-force north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas peaking at around 11 ft. Gale conditions will continue early Fri. Strong to near-gale force winds will then continue through Fri night before diminishing Sat. Gulf of Papagayo Region Gale Warning: Gale force NE to ENE gap winds are expected to continue through this evening in the Papagayo Region from near the border of Costa Rica and Nicaragua extending offshore to 87.5W and as far south as 10N. Seas could reach 10 to 12 ft within and downstream of these winds to about new. Winds will diminish below gale force by this evening, with strong to near-gale force winds prevailing through Thu night in the region. Eastern Pacific Significant Swell event: A set of large NW swell with seas greater than 12 ft will move into the northwest waters today behind a frontal boundary. Seas with this swell event will peak in the 14 to 16 ft range over the waters north of 27N between 125W-135W tonight and early Thu before starting to subside. Seas will subside below 12 ft by Fri morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from new to new. The ITCZ continues from new to new. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N and E of 92W, and from 03N to 10N and W of 110W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Aside from the gale in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a weak pressure gradient prevails across the area. Light to gentle winds are west of the Baja California peninsula and the open offshore waters. Seas are 4-6 ft west of Baja California, 2 ft or less over the Gulf of California, and 5-7 ft elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, except 8-11 ft closer to the Tehuantepec region. For the forecast, low pressure will approach far northern Baja California Norte from the W on Fri bringing fresh west to northwest winds. A large set of northwest swell will begin to impact the waters west of Baja California Norte Thu, spreading across the Baja California Sur offshores Fri before subsiding. Another set of NW swell will move into the Baja California Norte waters this weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for details on the ongoing Gulf of Papagayo region gale warning. Strong to gale force winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo region, with fresh winds extending downstream of the Gulf to near 90W. Seas of 8-12 ft are over and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region. Northwest swell generated by the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event is supporting seas in the 8-9 ft range over the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Fresh to strong northerly winds prevail over the Gulf of Panama. These winds likely extend downstream to 04N. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the area. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-6 ft are elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, gale force NE winds will continue over the Gulf of Papagayo through this evening, then fresh to strong winds will prevail through Fri, and diminishing by Sat. NW swell generated by the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event will impact the outer Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters through Thu night. Fresh to strong north winds will continue over the Gulf of Panama through tonight before diminishing to moderate to fresh Thu through Thu night. Elsewhere, winds are expected to be moderate or weaker for the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see above for details on an upcoming significant swell event over the northwestern portion of the basin. A cold front extends from new to new. To the NW of the front, fresh NW to N winds and 8 to 14 ft seas prevail, in NW to N swell. Weaker winds and lower seas prevail SE of the front and north of 25N. Fresh trades prevail north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W. Moderate trades prevail north of the ITCZ to 18N and east of 112W. Moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Seas of 8-9 ft in NW to N swell are south of 13N and west of 100W. Seas of 5-8 ft are elsewhere over the discussion waters. For the forecast, winds south of the ITCZ will be in the moderate to fresh range through tonight, then mostly gentle speeds afterward. Low pressure will approach 30N from the north tonight. This will support fresh to strong winds over the waters N of 28N and E of 134W tonight through Fri. The low will also usher in a large set of NW swell to the area, discussed in the special features section above. Seas greater than 8 ft associated with this swell will propagate across the NW waters through the end of the week and into the weekend. Areal coverage of seas greater than 8 ft will start to decrease by Sun as the seas gradually subside. $$ ERA