000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192030
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Dec 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
high pressure along the eastern slopes of Mexico and the eastern
north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting gale-force north to 
northeast winds of 30-40 kt in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with 
seas peaking at around 14 ft. A tight pressure gradient will 
support gale conditions through much of the week, with winds 
forecast to diminish below gale force on Fri. 

Eastern Pacific Significant Swell event: A set of NW swell will 
move into the northwest waters midweek, and seas greater than 12 
ft will move into the northern waters on Wed. Seas with this 
swell event will peak near 14 or 15 ft over the waters north of 
27N between 125W-133W late Wed and early Thu before starting to 
subside. Seas will subside below 12 ft early Fri. 

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 07N88W to 04N95W. The 
ITCZ continues from 04N95W to 05N116W to 08N121W to 09N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between
83W and 109W, and from 05N to 09N between 135W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on the 
ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

Aside from the gale in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a weak pressure 
gradient prevails. Gentle to locally moderate winds are west of 
the Baja California peninsula, with mainly light to gentle winds 
across the rest of the open offshore waters. Seas are in the 4-7 
ft range over the open waters off Mexico. Light to gentle winds, 
and seas of 2 ft or less, are over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, low pressure will approach far northern Baja 
California Norte from the W on Fri bringing fresh west to 
northwest winds. A large set of northwest swell will begin to 
impact the waters west of Baja California Norte Thu, spreading 
across the Baja California Sur offshores Fri before subsiding. 
Another set of NW swell will move into the Baja California Norte 
waters Sat night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong to near gale force winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo, 
with fresh to strong winds extending downstream of the Gulf to 
near 90W. Seas of 7-10 ft are over and downstream of the Gulf of
Papagayo region. Northwest swell generated by the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event is supporting seas in the 
8-10 ft range over the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El
Salvador. Fresh to locally strong north winds along with seas of
5-5 ft are over the Gulf of Panama. Gentle winds, and seas of 
4-6 ft, are elsewhere south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds in
the Gulf of Papagayo will continue through the rest of the week,
with periods of near gale force through Thu. Winds will diminish
Sat. NW swell generated by the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale- force 
gap wind event will impact the outer Guatemala and El Salvador 
offshore waters through Thu night. Fresh to strong north winds 
can be expected over the Gulf of Panama through Wed before 
diminishing. Elsewhere, winds are expected to be moderate or 
weaker for the next several days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see above for details on an upcoming significant swell 
event over the western portion of the basin.

A cold front extends from 30N117W to 21N124W. Gentle to moderate
west to northwest to winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are west of the 
front north of 28N. Moderate to locally fresh trades are north of
the ITCZ to near 15N. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north 
of the ITCZ. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. 
Seas of 8-10 ft in NW to N swell are south of 14N and west of 
115W. Seas of 5-7 ft are elsewhere over the discussion waters.

For the forecast, winds south of the ITCZ will be in the 
moderate to fresh range through Wed, then mostly gentle speeds 
afterward. Low pressure will approach the forecast waters the
middle of the week. This will bring fresh to occasionally strong
winds over the waters N of 28N and E of 132W for the second half
of the week. The low will also usher in a large set of NW swell 
to the area, discussed in the special features section above.
Seas greater than 8 ft associated to this swell will propagate
across the NW waters, reaching the waters NW of a line from Baja
California to near 10N140W Thu night. Thereafter, areal coverage
of seas greater than 8 ft will start to decrease as the seas 
gradually subside.

$$
AL