000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191447
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Dec 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
high pressure along the eastern slopes of Mexico and the eastern
north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting gale-force north to 
northeast winds of 30-40 kt in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with 
seas peaking at around 15 ft. A tight pressure gradient will 
support gale conditions through much of the rest of the week. 

Eastern Pacific Significant Swell event: A new set of NW swell 
will move into the northwest waters midweek, and seas greater 
than 12 ft will move into the northern waters on Wed. Seas with 
this swell event will peak near 14 or 15 ft over the waters north
of 27N between 125W-133W late Wed and early Thu before starting 
to subside. 

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 08N86W to 05N95W. The
ITCZ continues from 05N95W to 08N117W to 09N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between E of 109W,
and from 01N to 09N between 135W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on the 
ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle winds, and 
seas of 1-3 ft, are over the Gulf of California. A weak pressure 
gradient dominates the Mexican offshore waters outside of the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to locally moderate winds are west of
the Baja California peninsula, with mainly light to gentle winds
across the rest of the offshore waters. Seas are in the 4-7 ft
range over the open waters off Mexico. 

For the forecast, NW swell over the outer offshore forecast 
waters of Baja California between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta 
Eugenia will subside today. Low pressure is expected to approach 
far northern Baja California Norte from the W on Fri bringing 
fresh west to northwest winds. A large set of northwest swell 
will begin to impact the waters west of Baja California Norte 
Thu, spreading across the Baja California Sur offshores Fri and 
Sat.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong to near gale force winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo, 
with fresh to strong winds extending downstream of the Gulf to 
near 90W. Seas of 7-9 ft are over and downstream of the Gulf of 
Papagayo region. Northwest swell generated by the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event is supporting seas in the 
6-8 ft range over the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El 
Salvador. Fresh to locally strong north winds along with seas of 
5-7 ft are over the Gulf of Panama. Gentle winds, and seas of 4-5
ft, are elsewhere south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the
Gulf of Papagayo will continue through the rest of the week, 
with periods of near gale force through early Thu. Winds will 
diminish Sat. NW swell generated by the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-
force gap wind event will impact the outer Guatemala and El 
Salvador offshore waters for much of the week. The fresh to 
strong north winds over the Gulf of Panama will change little 
through early Wed, then be at mostly fresh speeds through Fri and
at gentle to moderate speeds afterward. Elsewhere, winds are 
expected to be moderate or weaker for the next several days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see above for details on an upcoming significant swell 
event over the western portion of the basin.

A cold front extends from 30N118W to 21N124W. Moderate west to 
northwest to winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are west of the front 
north of 28N. Moderate to locally fresh trades are north of the 
ITCZ to near 15N. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of 
the ITCZ. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. 
Seas of 8-10 ft in NW to N swell are south of 16N and west of 
120W. Seas of 5-7 ft are elsewhere over the discussion waters.

For the forecast, winds south of the ITCZ will be in the 
moderate to fresh range through Wed, then mostly gentle speeds 
afterward. 

$$
AL