000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190336
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Dec 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
high pressure along the eastern slopes of Mexico and the eastern
north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting gale-force north to 
northeast winds of 30-40 kt in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with 
seas peaking at around 14 ft. A tight pressure gradient will 
support gale conditions through much of the week. Seas with this 
latest gale-force gap wind event are forecast to peak near 15 ft 
late tonight and Tue.

Eastern Pacific Significant Swell event: The NW swell over the 
far NW waters has subsided below 12 ft. A new set of northwest 
swell will move into the northwest waters midweek, and seas 
greater than 12 ft will move into the northern waters on 
Wed. Seas with this swell event will peak near 14 or 15 ft over 
the waters north of 29N between 126W-135W late Wed and early Thu
before starting to subside. 

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 07N86W to 04N96W and
to 05N106W. The ITCZ axis extends from 05N106W to 08N116W to 
08N125W and to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 116W-120W, also within
60 nm north of the ITCZ between 120W-124W, and within 60 nm north
of the ITCZ between 132W-136W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 104W-108W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on the 
ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle northwest 
winds, and seas of 1-3 ft, are over the Gulf of California. A 
weak pressure gradient dominates the Mexican offshore waters 
outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with mainly light to gentle
winds across the rest of the offshore waters. Seas are in the 
6-8 ft range in long-period west to northwest swell off the Baja
California peninsula, and 4-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, NW swell over the outer offshore forecast 
waters of Baja California between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta 
Eugenia will subside on Tue. Low pressure may approach far 
northern Baja California Norte from the W on Fri bringing fresh 
west to northwest winds. A large set of northwest swell will 
begin to impact the waters west of Baja California Norte Thu, 
spreading across the Baja California Sur offshores Fri and Sat.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo, with fresh 
winds extending downstream of the Gulf to near 90W. Seas of 6-8 
ft are over and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region. 
Northwest swell generated by the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force 
gap wind event is supporting seas in the 6-8 ft range over the 
outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Moderate to 
fresh north winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, are over the Gulf of 
Panama. Gentle winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are elsewhere south of 
the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the
Gulf of Papagayo will continue through the week, with periods of
near gale force through early Thu. Winds will diminish Sat. NW 
swell generated by the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale- force gap wind 
event will impact the outer Guatemala and El Salvador offshore 
waters for much of the week. Moderate to fresh north winds are 
over the Gulf of Panama, reaching strong speeds tonight through 
early Wed. Elsewhere, winds are expected to be moderate or weaker
for the next several days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see above for details on an upcoming significant swell 
event over the western portion of the basin.

A cold front extends from 30N122W to 23N128W. Moderate west 
to northwest to winds are west of the front north of 28N, while 
light to gentle winds are east of the front where weak high
pressure is present. Moderate to locally fresh trades are north 
of the ITCZ to near 15N. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere
north of the ITCZ. Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the 
ITCZ. Seas of 8-10 ft are north of the equator and west of 119W. 
Seas of 5-7 ft are elsewhere over the discussion waters.

For the forecast, winds south of the ITCZ will be in the 
moderate to fresh range through midweek. The 8 ft seas from the 
northwest swell over the western waters will gradually subside, 
with areal coverage of 8 ft seas decreasing over the next few
days.

$$
Aguirre