000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120305
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Dec 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0255 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient between 
high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressures in the
deep tropics is supporting gale-force winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Strong winds associated with this gap wind event is
likely as far south as 10N. Seas are currently near 18 ft. The 
gale-force winds will diminish by Thu morning with strong winds 
continuing through the end of the week. Seas will drop below 12 
ft late Wed and below 8 ft by Fri. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast and the Offshore 
Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on the special 
feature.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N82W 
to 06N100W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N100W to 07N120W to beyond
05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed from 05N to 10N and west of 119W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a
Gale Warning for the Tehuantepec region.

A weak pressure regime has set up across the Baja California
area, allowing for moderate or weaker winds in the offshore
waters and in the Gulf of California. Seas in the offshore waters
of Baja California are 3-6 ft and 2-5 ft in the Gulf of
California. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are prevalent
in the rest of the Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a surge of 
fresh winds could bring NW swell with seas to 8 ft to the Baja 
California Norte waters N of Punta Eugenia on Tue. Strong winds
are possible across the Gulf of California once again later this
week and into the weekend. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Rough to very rough seas continue to affect the offshore waters 
of Guatemala and El Salvador due to the swell from the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event. The 8 ft seas extend as far east as 
91W. Meanwhile, fresh to strong easterly trade winds prevail 
across the Gulf of Papagayo region, including the coast of 
southern Nicaragua. These winds extend westward to about 89W. 
Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail in combined mixed swell. Latest 
satellite imagery depicts a few showers in the offshore Panama 
and Colombia.

For the forecast, the rough to very rough seas impacting 
Guatemala and El Salvador will continue to expand across the area
through tonight. These seas will subside Wed night into Thu. 
Fresh to strong NE-E winds are forecast across the Papagayo 
region through early Fri. Seas will build to 9-10 ft tonight 
into Wed. Gentle to moderate breezes are expected elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge is centered near 33N137W and extends
southeastward into the tropical eastern Pacific. This high
pressure system continues to support fresh to strong easterly
trade winds, mainly north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 115W.
Seas in these waters are 9-13 ft. Fresh to strong NE-E winds
associated with the gap wind event ongoing in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec extend into the eastern waters of the basin, mainly
north of 07N and between 95W and 105W. Seas in these waters are
8-14 ft. Meanwhile, south of the ITCZ, moderate to locally fresh
SE-E winds prevail with seas 7-9 ft within a mix of northerly 
and southeasterly swell. In the remainder of the basin, moderate 
or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the surface ridge to the north will weaken as
it drifts eastward through midweek. This will diminish trade 
winds on Tue into Thu. Seas will subside to around 8 ft by Wed. 
Fresh to strong NE winds associated with Tehuantepec gap winds 
will continue reaching the high seas over the next several days.
Winds and seas will eventually subside from this event by Thu 
into Thu night. A large, long- period swell should reach the NW 
corner of the waters by Wed night as a cold front approaches the 
region and stalls. A reinforcing cold front will move across this
region by Thu into Fri, with low pressure forming along the 
boundary. This low could potentially produce gale-force winds 
late this week and into the weekend with very rough seas. 

$$
Delgado