000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112155
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Dec 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient between 
high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressures in the
deep tropics is supporting gale-force winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Strong winds associated with this gap wind event is
likely as far south as 10N. Seas are currently peaking around 20
ft. The gale- force winds will diminish by Thu morning with 
strong winds continuing through the end of the week. Seas will 
drop below 12 ft by Wed and below 8 ft by Fri. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast and the Offshore 
Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on the special 
feature.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 09N79W to 06N94W. 
The ITCZ extends from 06N49W to 07N120W to beyond 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 
05N to 12N between 117W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 04N to 09N between 77W and 88W and from 04N to 07N
between 106W and 111W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a
Gale Warning for the Tehuantepec region.

High pressure located across the U.S. Great Basin has began to 
weaken, which is leading to moderate to fresh winds across the 
Gulf of California. Seas have already subsided below 8 ft and
range 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, surface ridging extends across the 
Baja California offshore waters due to high pressure northwest of
the area. This is leading to gentle winds across the rest of the
Mexico offshore waters outside of Tehuantepec. For waters W of
102W, including the Baja California and southwest Mexico 
offshore waters, seas range 4 to 6 ft within NW swell. No
significant convection is noted at this time. 

For the forecast outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a surge of 
fresh winds could bring NW swell with seas to 8 ft to the Baja 
California Norte waters N of Punta Eugenia on Tue. Strong winds
are possible across the Gulf of California once again later this
week and into the weekend. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Very rough seas to 15 ft are impacting the offshore waters of 
Guatemala and El Salvador due to the swell from the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event. The 8 ft seas extend as far east as 
92W. Meanwhile, fresh to locally strong easterly gap winds 
prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region, including the coast 
of southern Nicaragua. These winds extend westward to about 89W.
Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail in combined mixed swell. Latest 
satellite imagery shows showers and isolated thunderstorms 
persisting in the Gulf of Panama, offshore Panama and Colombia.

For the forecast, the rough to very rough seas impacting 
Guatemala and El Salvador will continue to expand across the area
through tonight. These seas will subside Wed night into Thu. 
Fresh to strong NE-E winds are forecast across the Papagayo 
region through early Fri. Seas will build to around 9 ft tonight
into Wed. Gentle to moderate breezes are expected elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific continues under the
influence of a strong ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure 
near 33N134W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure 
and the ITCZ is causing fresh to strong easterly winds to prevail
between 07N to 20N and W of 113W based on the latest
scatterometer data. Seas in these waters 8 to 12 ft in combined 
NW swell along with being enhanced by the strong winds. South of 
the ITCZ, moderate to locally fresh SE to E winds prevail with 
seas 7 to 9 ft within a mix of northerly and southeasterly swell.
East of 100W, outside of the influence of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail with seas 5 
to 7 ft. 

For the forecast, the surface ridge to the north will weaken as
it drifts eastward through midweek. This will diminish trade 
winds on Tue into Thu. Seas will subside to around 8 ft by Wed. 
Fresh to strong NE winds associated with Tehuantepec gap winds 
will reach into the high seas waters to 10N105W tonight. Seas
will eventually subside from this event by Thu into thu night. A
large, long- period swell should reach the NW corner of the 
waters by Wed night as a cold front approaches the region and
stalls. A reinforcing cold front will move across this region by
Thu into Fri, with low pressure forming along the boundary. This
low could potentially produce gale-force winds late this week and
into the weekend with very rough seas. 

$$
AReinhart