000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110337
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Dec 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0335 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A strong pressure gradient between a
1025 mb high pressure system over southern Texas and lower
pressures in the deep tropics sustain storm-force winds in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Peak seas should reach around 20 ft tonight
and Mon morning. Storm-force winds will end Mon morning, but 
gale-force winds and rough seas will prevail in the region of 
Tehuantepec through Wed.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast and the Offshore Waters
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on the special
feature.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Costa Rica and
Panama near 08N83W to 06N93W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N93W to
06N110W to 07N128W. A surface trough is analyzed near 129W, south
of 11N. The ITCZ then continues from 07N130W to beyond 06N140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a
Storm Warning for the Tehuantepec region due to gap winds.

Broad high pressure north of the area extends southward to the
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the 1032 mb
ridge over the Great Basin and lower pressures in the deep
tropics support fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of
California. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate or weaker 
winds are found across the offshore waters of the Baja 
California peninsula. However, fresh northerly winds are
occurring in the nearshore waters of Baja California Sur. Seas of
3-6 ft are prevalent across the Baja California offshore waters.

Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, winds are moderate or
weaker and seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the high 
pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will continue forcing strong 
NW winds over the Gulf of California through early Mon. A 
recurrence of fresh to strong NW winds over the Gulf of 
California may begin Fri. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds continue across the
Papagayo region, including the coast of Nicaragua, and extends
westward to about 90W. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between higher pressure 
over the NW Caribbean and the monsoon trough to the south will 
continue forcing fresh to strong NE to E winds across the 
Papagayo region through the next several days. Seas will build to
near 9 ft late Tue. Gentle to moderate breezes are expected 
elsewhere. Otherwise, storm- force gap winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will generate large NW swell that will affect the 
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters tonight through Tue 
night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1025 mb high pressure system is located near 34N132W and
extends southward into the remainder of the tropical eastern
Pacific. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures in the ITCZ support fresh to strong easterly winds
from 06N to 20N and west of 120W. Seas in these waters are 8-12
ft, with the highest seas occurring near 08N139W. An altimeter
pass from several hours ago captured seas to 14 ft near the
aforementioned location. Moderate to fresh SE-E winds and seas of
7-9 ft are found south of the ITCZ and west of 90W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the surface ridge to the north will weaken as
it drifts S into the region Tue, diminishing the trades. Seas 
should drop below 8 ft Wed over the tradewind belt. Tonight into 
Mon night, fresh to strong NE winds associated with Tehuantepec 
gap winds will reach into the high seas waters to 10N105W with 
seas 8-12 ft. A large, long-period swell should reach the NW 
corner of the waters by Wed night and gradually decay while 
moving SE through the end of the week. 

$$
Delgado