000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100354
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Dec 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A strong cold front will move across 
the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, resulting in the development of 
a gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun 
afternoon reaching up to storm-force Sun night. Peak winds are
currently forecast to reach around 50 kt, but model guidance has
been trending weaker lately. Peak seas should reach around 20 ft
Sun night and Mon morning. Storm-force winds will end Mon 
morning, but gale-force winds and rough seas will prevail in the
region of Tehuantepec into Wed. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast and the Offshore Waters
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on the special
feature.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 06N89W. The ITCZ 
extends from 06N89W to 08N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong is convection noted from 05N-10N 
between 115W-135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a
Storm Warning for the Tehuantepec region due to gap winds.

Surface ridging extends from a 1029 mb high off of California to
near the Baja California and SW Mexico coasts. Only gentle to
moderate winds are resulting over the open Pacific waters. Seas
are 8-10 ft in large NW swell west of Baja California and 5-7 ft
off of SW Mexico. However, high pressure over the U.S. Great 
Basin is forcing strong NW winds over the central and N Gulf of 
California with seas 6-9 ft over the N Gulf and 4-7 ft over the
central and S Gulf.

For the forecast outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the high 
pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will continue forcing strong 
NW winds over the central and N Gulf of California through Sun 
night. Large NW swell will gradually subside off Baja California 
on Sun.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The pressure gradient between higher pressure over the W 
Caribbean and the monsoon trough to the south is forcing fresh to
strong NE to E winds across the Papagayo region with seas 6-8 
ft. Gentle to moderate breezes are occurring elsewhere with seas
3-6 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between higher pressure 
over the W Caribbean and the monsoon trough to the south should
continue forcing fresh to strong NE to E winds across the 
Papagayo region through the next several days. Gentle to moderate
breezes are expected elsewhere. Otherwise, storm-force gap winds
north of the area over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will generate 
large NW swell that will affect the Guatemala and El Salvador 
offshore waters Sun night into Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between the surface ridging along the W
coast of Mexico and the ITCZ is forcing fresh to strong NE to E
trades from 07N-22N west of 120W. Seas are 10-12 ft. Elsewhere,
winds are gentle to moderate with 8-10 ft seas in large NW swell.

For the forecast, the surface ridging should weaken by Tue,
diminishing the trades Tue into Thu. Seas should drop below 8 ft
by Wed over the tradewind belt. On Sun night into Mon night,
fresh to strong NE winds associated with the Tehuanteper gap wind
event will reach into the high seas waters to 10N105W with seas
8-12 ft. A large, long-period swell should reach the NW corner 
of the waters on Wed and gradually decay while quickly moving 
southeastward. 

$$
Landsea