000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092018
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Dec 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A strong cold front will move across 
the Gulf of Mexico through Sun night, resulting in gap winds in 
the Tehuantepec region beginning this evening with fresh to 
strong winds, reaching gale-force Sun afternoon, and storm-force  
by Sun night. Storm-force winds and rough seas to 21 ft are 
forecast to continue into Mon morning. Afterward, gale- force 
winds will prevail in the region of Tehuantepec through Wed. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast and the Offshore Waters
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on the special
feature.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 06N89W. The ITCZ 
extends from 06N89W to 07N114W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 111W and 
134W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a
Storm Warning for the Tehuantepec region due to gap winds.

Strong high pressure centered N of the area continues to extend 
a ridge SE across the Baja California region. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and a surface trough near the west 
coast of mainland Mexico is supporting fresh to locally strong 
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in the Gulf of California. 
Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds prevail. NW swell dominates the
offshore waters, with seas of 7 to 9 ft offshore Baja California
and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, long-period NW swell will gradually subside 
off Baja California on Sun. Another set of NW swell will enter 
the Baja California Norte Mon evening, but will subside by Wed. 
Strong winds will spread down the Gulf of California today, 
producing rough seas of 8 to 9 ft in the central and northern 
Gulf this weekend. These winds and seas will diminish Mon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are ongoing across the Gulf of 
Papagayo with seas to 7 ft. Between the coast of Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate from the south 
with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range. Moderate N winds are pulsing in
the Gulf of Panama while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere
along with seas to 6 ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue to
pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo into Thu. Gentle to moderate 
breezes are expected elsewhere. Otherwise, storm-force gap winds 
N of the area in the Tehuantepec region tonight will generate 
northerly swell that will affect the Guatemala and El Salvador 
offshore waters Sun night through early Wed. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extending from strong high pressure centered N 
of the area continues to dominates the waters N of 14N and W of 
110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ 
continues to support mainly fresh NE to E winds across this same
region where seas range between 8 to 10 ft. In the far western 
tropical waters, fresh to strong winds and seas to 12 ft are 
noted approximately from 9N to 17N and W of 129W. Mainly 
moderate winds and 7 to 10 ft seas are noted elsewhere, including
S of the ITCZ.

For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail across the area
into the middle of next week. Large, long-period N swell will 
continue to move across the forecast waters, gradually decaying 
into Mon. Looking ahead, a new round of long period NW swell with
seas in excess of 12 ft is likely to enter the NW waters late 
next week. 

$$
Konarik