159 
AXPZ20 KNHC 072057
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Dec 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure building
southward through Mexico continues to support northerly gales in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas of up to 11 ft. Strong winds
extend S to about 13N, with seas of 8 to 10 ft continuing S to
around 11N. As the high pressure weakens into tonight, gales will
end, and strong gap winds will diminish Fri. Conditions will
continue to improve Fri night, with seas falling below 8 ft. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N81W to 06N95W. The ITCZ 
extends from 06N95W to 08N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N, W of 125W, and from
03N to 07N, E of 84W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more information on
the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
 
A weak cold front has slipped S to offshore waters N of 29N.
Fresh N winds prevail behind the front with gentle to moderate
winds to the S. NW swell is inducing 8 to 11 ft seas south
through the Revillagigedo Islands. Light winds and seas of 1 to 3
ft are ongoing in the Gulf of California, with light to gentle
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell for the remainder of
offshore waters. 

For the forecast, Long- period NW swell will persist off Baja 
California and the Revillagigedo Islands through Sat. Strong 
winds are likely to develop across most of the Gulf of California
this weekend, producing rough seas. More gale-force winds are 
likely to occur over the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this weekend 
into early next week along with very rough seas. Storm-force 
winds may develop Sun night in this area.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong NE to E winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo, with 
seas of 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds elsewhere over the 
region. Seas range 5 to 7 ft in the Guatemala and El Salvador 
offshore waters mostly within N to NW swell due to the influence 
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Elsewhere, seas range 
3 to 5 ft seas primarily in S to SW swell. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are noted south of the monsoon trough off the coast
of Colombia. 

For the forecast, light to moderate winds will prevail over the 
Gulf of Papagayo region through Sun night. Fresh to strong NE to 
E winds will develop across the Gulf of Papagayo Mon and Mon 
night as high pressure builds N of the area. Light to gentle 
breezes will persist across the Gulf of Panama region through 
Mon. SW swell will maintain 7 ft seas between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands through Fri night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the waters N of 14N. Fresh to locally 
strong trade winds persist south of the ridge, mainly 08N to 25N 
W of 115W. Seas in this region are 8 to 13 ft, in a mix of seas 
due to the trade wind flow and long-period NW swell. A cold 
front stretches from 29N115W to 25N140W. N of the front, fresh NE
winds prevail with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Combined seas of 8 to 11 
ft cover much of the region elsewhere W of 112W, although with 
primarily S to SE swell S of 04N. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 
to 7 ft seas are noted E of 112W. 

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move across the
waters tonight while weakening. This will allow for trade winds 
to diminish slightly W of 115W. Large, long-period NW swell 
accompanying the front will continue to move across the waters N 
of 10N and W of 120W into tonight supporting seas to 12 ft N of 
22N and W of 130W. E of 115W, the combination of the NW swell 
with shorter- period NE swell emerging from gap winds and fresh 
E trade winds will support rough seas from 07N to 12N between 95W
and 110W through Fri. Overall swell will gradually decay this
weekend.

$$
Konarik