475 
AXPZ20 KNHC 071527
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Dec 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure stretches 
over central Mexico, supporting northerly gale force winds 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong winds likely stretch as
far south as 12N. Seas currently in the area are 8 to 12 ft. 
This pattern will persist through tonight. Strong winds and rough
seas will be diminishing by Fri. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 06N107W. The ITCZ 
extends from 06N107W to 08N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N and W of 125W.
Scattered moderate convection has also developed from 04N to 08N
E of 83W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more information on
the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A broad ridge extends across the offshore waters of Baja 
California. The pattern is supporting gentle to moderate 
northerly winds offshore Baja California Sur with moderate to
fresh N winds offshore Baja California Norte. Light to gentle 
winds prevail in the Gulf of California. NW swell across the Baja
California waters is bringing 8 to 12 ft seas mainly over the 
waters beyond 60 nm of the Baja California coastline. Seas range 
2 to 4 ft across the Gulf of California. Farther south, light to 
gentle breezes persist off southern Mexico with 5 to 7 ft 
combined seas in mixed swell.

For the forecast, strong high pres ridging W of Baja California 
will gradually weaken through the end of the week. Strong to gale
force winds will funnel through Baja California Norte into 
portions of the northern Gulf of California tonight into early 
Fri before diminishing. Fresh to strong NW winds will prevail 
over the waters N of Punta Falsa through Fri. Large NW swell will
prevail W of 110W through the end of the week. The next gap wind
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected Sun night through 
Mon with gale force winds likely.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong NE to E winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo, with 
seas of 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds elsewhere over the 
region. Seas range 5 to 7 ft in the Guatemala and El Salvador 
offshore waters mostly within N to NW swell due to the influence 
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Elsewhere, seas range 
3 to 5 ft seas primarily in S to SW swell. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are noted south of the monsoon trough off the coast
of Colombia. 

For the forecast, light to moderate winds will prevail over the 
Gulf of Papagayo region through Sun night. Fresh to strong NE to 
E winds will develop across the Gulf of Papagayo Mon and Mon 
night as high pressure builds N of the area. Light to gentle 
breezes will persist across the Gulf of Panama region through 
Mon. SW swell will maintain 7 ft seas between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands through Fri night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the waters N of 15N. Fresh to locally strong
trade winds persist south of the ridge, mainly 08N to 25N W of 
115W. Seas in this region are 8 to 13 ft, in a mix of seas due to
the trade wind flow, and long-period NW swell. A cold front 
stretches in the NW corner of the basin from 30N120W to 26N140W 
with moderate to fresh N to NE winds behind the front. Seas to 11
ft are noted along the front. Combined seas of 8 to 11 ft cover 
much of the region elsewhere W of 112W, although with primarily S
to SE swell S of 04N. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 7 ft 
seas are noted E of 112W. A surface trough is analyzed along 125W
from 10N to 15N with scattered showers.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move across the
waters today while weakening. This will allow for trade winds to
diminish slightly W of 115W today. Large, long-period NW swell 
accompanying the front will continue to move across the waters N 
of 10N and W of 120W through today supporting seas to 13 ft N of
22N and W of 130W. E of 115W, the combination of the NW swell 
with shorter-period NE swell emerging from gap wind events and 
fresh E trade winds will support rough seas from 07N to 12N 
between 95W and 110W through Fri. This swell event will begin to
subside by the weekend and into early next week. 

$$
Konarik