672 
AXPZ20 KNHC 030849
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Dec 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event across
the Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin this afternoon as a 
ridge builds across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre 
mountains in Mexico, behind a cold front moving across the Gulf 
of Mexico. Winds are expected to reach minimal gale force mainly at
night starting late today through Wed night. Seas may reach 10 
to 12 ft downstream of the strongest winds during the overnight 
hours.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N120W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N120W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 11N to 13N between 108W and 114W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends along the eastern shore of the Gulf of
California, west of a 1019 mb high pressure area over north-
central Mexico. Farther west, a another ridge extends from 1028 
mb high pressure located near 32N130W to near Cabo San Lucas. 
Recent scatterometer data and surface observations indicate 
moderate to fresh NW to N winds off Baja California, where a 
concurrent altimeter satellite pass showed combined seas to be 5 
to 7 ft. Seas are probably a little higher near Guadalupe Island 
due to linger NW swell. The scatterometer and altimeter data also
showed fresh NW winds and 5 to 7 ft wave heights over the 
southern Gulf of California. NW winds may be fresh to strong over
the central Gulf of California, along the trough situated 
between high pressure to the east and west. The scatterometer 
data and an earlier ship observation also showed winds funneling 
off the coast of Cabo Corrientes to be at least 20 kt. Farther 
south, light breezes persist off southern Mexico, with 3 to 5 ft 
combined seas in mixed swell.

For the forecast, besides the gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec described in the Special Features section above, high
pressure west of Baja California will build through Mon, 
supporting fresh to locally strong NW winds across mainly the 
central Gulf of California through Mon night. Looking ahead, 
large NW swell will move into the waters off Baja California and 
the Revillagigedo Islands Tue through Thu.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A ship observation from a few hours ago confirmed fresh to 
strong gap winds were ongoing over the Gulf of Papagayo. These 
gap winds are active between strong high pressure well north of 
area and lower pressure farther south in the tropical Pacific. 
Seas are 5 to 6 ft within these winds. Gentle to moderate winds 
are noted elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft seas primarily in NW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected across and well
downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region mainly at night through
Thu night as high pressure builds north of area. Gentle to 
moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. Moderate combined seas 
will persist into early next week in a mix of SW and NW swell. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge extends across the region north of 15N and
west of 110W. Recent scatterometer and altimeter satellite passes
indicate this pattern supports a large area of fresh to strong 
NE to E winds with seas of 8 to 11 ft, mainly from 05N to 25N
west of 115W. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate combined 
seas persist elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the ridge will gradually weaken through early
next week, allowing trade winds to diminish slightly. Reinforcing
NW swell will continue to move into the region west of 120W,
maintaining 8 to 11 ft combined seas. 

$$
Christensen