000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022132
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Dec 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event across
the Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin by early Sun afternoon
as a ridge builds across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre 
mountains in Mexico, behind a cold front moving across the Gulf 
of Mexico. Winds are expected to reach minimal gale force at 
night Sun night through Wed night. Seas may reach 10 to 12 ft 
downstream of the strongest winds during the overnight hours. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to
07N100W to 09N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is evident from 03N to 06N and E of 
85W to the coast of Colombia, and from 05N to 08N W of 137W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 
100W and 120W, and from 05N to 13N between 120W and 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 1029 mb high pressure located near 
32N131W to near Cabo San Lucas. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds 
are noted across the offshore waters of Baja California with
seas of 5 to 7 ft. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate
winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft prevail in the N and central parts 
of the Gulf while moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are 
noted per scatterometer data in the south part of the Gulf and 
downstream to about 22N where seas are in the 3 to 4 ft range. 
Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle
winds are seen with combined seas of 3 to 5 ft in primarily Nw
swell.

For the forecast, gap winds will pulse to gale-force at night 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night through Wed night. 
Farther north, high pressure centered west of Baja California 
will shift eastward through Mon, allowing fresh to locally strong
NW winds across the Gulf of California tonight through Mon night,
particularly over the central part of the Gulf. Meanwhile, large
NW swell off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro will 
persist through Mon, then build into mid week as a new group of 
reinforcing NW swell enters the region. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent scatterometer pass indicates moderate to fresh NE to E 
winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream beyond 90W. Seas are
5 to 6 ft within these winds. Gentle to moderate winds are noted
elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft seas primarily in NW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected across 
and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through Wed.
Winds could increase again to fresh to strong speeds Wed night
and Thu as high pressure builds N of area. Gentle to moderate 
winds are forecast elsewhere. Moderate combined seas will persist
into early next week in a mix of SW and NW swell. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge extends across the region north of 15N and
W of 110W producing a large area of fresh to strong NE to E 
winds with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Gentle to moderate breezes and 
moderate combined seas persist elsewhere. Strong winds aloft,
associated with a subtropical jet stream branch are advecting 
abundant tropical moisture over parts of central and NE Mexico 
and into the Gulf of Mexico. This pattern is favorable for 
generating areas of rain with embedded showers, some which may 
produce heavy rainfall.

For the forecast, the ridge will gradually weaken through early
next week, allowing trade winds to diminish slightly. Reinforcing
NW swell will continue to move into the region west of 120W,
maintaining 8 to 11 ft combined seas. 

$$
GR