145 
AXPZ20 KNHC 020838
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Dec 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly gap winds will
pulse to gale force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec at night Sun 
through mid week. This is due to a cold front moving across the 
western Gulf of Mexico and into southern Mexico. Seas may reach
12 ft downstream of the strongest winds during the overnight
hours. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Costa Rica near 10N85W 
to 08N100W to 11N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is evident from 11N to 13N between 111W and 117W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 
06N to 08N between 123W and 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 1026 mb high pressure near 33N133W
to south of Cabo San Lucas. Fresh N winds persist off Baja
California Norte, between the high pressure and lower pressure
over northwest Mexico. NW swell of 7 to 9 ft is evident north of
Punta Eugenia, with 5 to 7 ft elsewhere over open waters north of
20N. Light breezes and slight seas persist over the Gulf of
California. Farther south, gentle to moderate breezes are noted
off southern Mexico, with combined seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed
swell.

For the forecast, gap winds will pulse to gale-force at night 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night through Tue night. 
Farther north, high pressure centered west of Baja California 
will strengthen through Mon, allowing fresh to strong NW winds 
across the Gulf of California Sun through late Mon. Meanwhile, 
large NW swell off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro will 
persist through Mon, then build into mid week as a new group of 
reinforcing NW swell enters the region. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

An earlier scatterometer pass indicated fresh gap winds reaching
from the Gulf of Papagayo to as far west as 95W. A recent
altimeter satellite pass showed seas to 6 ft in the area of fresh
winds. Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas in
mixed swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected across 
and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through early 
next week. Gentle to moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. 
Moderate combined seas will persist into early next week in a mix
of SW and NW swell. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge extends across the region north of 20N.
Recent scatterometer satellite data and ship observations 
confirmed mostly fresh to strong NE winds south of the ridge from
10N to 20N west of 115W, with 8 to 11 ft. A broad upper trough 
extends along 115W. Divergent flow aloft combined with convergent
trade winds are supporting the showers and thunderstorms 
described above along the monsoon trough. Farther south, SE to S 
swell to 8 ft persists south of the equator between 105W and 
120W. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate combined seas 
persist elsewhere.

For the forecast, the ridge will gradually weaken through early
next week, allowing trade winds to diminish slightly. Reinforcing
NW swell will continue to move into the region west of 120W,
maintaining 8 to 11 ft combined seas. The southerly swell south
of the equator will subside below 8 ft Saturday. 

$$
Christensen