448 
AXPZ20 KNHC 011559
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Dec 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from western Panama near 8.5N82W to
07N100W to 10N118W to 06N133W. The ITCZ continues from 06N113W to
beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted from 04N to 10N between 110W and 140W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 10N to 15N between 98W and
115W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure of 1030 mb located near 34N138W extends a
ridge across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California.
Fresh to strong NW to N winds are noted N of Punta Eugenia with
seas of 8 to 9 ft in NW swell. In the Gulf of California light 
and variable winds are seen with seas of 1-2 ft. Elsewhere across
the Mexican offshore waters, gentle to moderate winds prevail 
with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, a ridge will persist across the waters west of  
Baja California supporting fresh breezes and 8 to 10 ft seas in 
NW swell north of Cabo San Lazaro into Sat. This swell event will
subside on Sun. Farther south, light breezes and moderate seas in 
mixed swell will persist off southern Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are blowing across the Papagayo
region extending to near 90W. Moderate to fresh winds also 
extend across the waters offshore of northern Nicaragua and the 
Gulf of Fonseca. Seas across this area are 5 to 7 ft. Light to 
gentle offshore winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. 
Light to gentle SW winds are elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. 
Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail across the area primarily in NW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected across 
and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through early 
next week, pulsing to strong speeds tonight. Moderate combined 
seas will persist into early next week in a mix of SW and NW 
swell. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1030 mb located near 34N138W dominates
most of forecast waters N of 15N and W of 110W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and the monsoon 
trough and ITCZ is supporting a large area of fresh to strong 
winds north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to about 22N. Seas are 8 
to 10 ft within these winds. Altimeter data indicate seas of 8 to
10 ft, primarily in NW swell, S of a line from 08N112W to 03N98W
to 03.4S95W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will tighten across the
area supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds S of 25N through 
the weekend. NW swell across the waters from 10N and 25N will 
continue to move westward across the forecast region through the
next few days while expanding in area. The NW swell impacting 
waters north N of 27N between 117W and 125W will shift eastward
towards the Baja California waters over the next few days, 
lingering through the weekend. Swell impacting waters south of 
10N between 95W and 115W will subside through Sat.

$$
GR