000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301522
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Nov 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N85W to low pressure near 09N113W 1008 mb to 08N127W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N127W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 94W
and 104W, and around the low pressure from 05N to 12N between 
107W and 122W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate N-NW winds are noted across the Baja California 
offshore waters N of 20N, becoming N to NE from 20N southward 
through the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in fading 
NW swell across the Baja waters. Fresh N to NW winds are noted 
in the northern Gulf of California with gentle to moderate winds 
in the southern Gulf. Seas are to 4 ft inside the Gulf. Light to 
gentle winds are elsewhere over the discussion waters between 
Cabo Corrientes and Tehuantepec, where seas are in the 5-7 ft 
range. Pressure gradient from the high pressure across the Gulf 
of Mexico continues to weaken. Strong winds continue across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec but diminishing in coverage with seas to 6 
ft. 

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec today. Surface ridging will prevail across the 
Baja California offshore waters today, bringing moderate to 
fresh NW winds across the Baja offshore waters through Fri. NW 
swell will move across the Baja California offshore waters later 
today into tonight north of Punta Eugenia. The swell will reach 
as far south as 25N, bringing seas between 8 to 10 ft through 
early Sat. This swell will linger across the far northern Baja 
California offshore waters through the weekend and into early 
next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong E-NE gap winds are over the Papagayo region and 
extends to near 91W, and moderate offshore winds extending across
the waters offshore of northern Nicaragua and the Gulf of 
Fonseca. Seas across this area are 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle 
offshore winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Light 
to gentle SW winds are elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Seas of
4-7 ft prevail across the area waters in mixed swell. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are still lingering across the near and
offshore waters of Colombia.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected across 
and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through Thu 
night, pulsing to strong speeds at night. Moderate W to NW swell
across the regional waters will continue today. Moderate
southerly swell will approach the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador
offshore waters late weekend and into early next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure NW of the area waters extends across waters N of
17N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure 
and the monsoon trough and ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh 
winds N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 25N and west of 
110W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted N of 26N. Light to 
gentle winds are N of 25N, while gentle to moderate winds are 
noted S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. NW swell dominates the 
discussion waters W of 100W, with seas in the 7-9 ft range in 
fading NW swell. Seas of 6-7 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the high pressure NW of the area will continue
to build SE across the region today. This will tighten the
pressure gradient between the high pressure and the ITCZ/monsoon
trough. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will prevail south of 25N 
into the weekend. NW swell across the waters from 10N and 25N 
will continue to move westward across the waters through the next
few days. The swell area will expand in coverage by the weekend 
as winds increase. The NW swell impacting waters N of 29N between
121W and 127W will shift eastward towards the Baja California 
waters over the next few days, lingering through the weekend. 
Swell impacting waters south of 10N will subside by the weekend.

$$
ERA