000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300350
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Nov 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to low pressure near 10N109W 1007 mb to 06N129W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N129W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted around the low pressure from
06N to 16N between 101W and 113W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 05N to 08N between 82W and 102W and from 05N to 14N
between 114W and 125W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure extending across eastern Mexico continues to weaken
and shift eastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The 
resultant pressure gradient is bringing strong N to NE winds 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind of Tehuantepec to 
near 14N. Seas range 6 to 8 ft in this area. 

Elsewhere, moderate N-NW winds are noted across the Baja
California offshore waters N of 20N, becoming N to NE from 20N
southward through the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are 6 to 7 ft
in fading NW swell across the Baja waters. Fresh to locally
strong N to NW winds are noted in the northern Gulf of 
California with gentle to moderate winds in the souther Gulf.
Seas are to 4 ft inside the Gulf. Light to gentle winds are 
elsewhere over the discussion waters between Cabo Corrientes and 
Tehuantepec, where seas are in the 5-7 ft range.

For the forecast, winds and seas will gradually diminish across
and downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, then diminish
considerably on Thu as high pressure dominating the Gulf of 
Mexico shifts eastward. High pressure will build across the 
region from the NW, bringing a return to moderate to locally 
fresh NW winds across the Baja offshore waters through Fri. As 
the high pressure begins to build into the area tonight, strong 
westerly gap winds are expected to develop across the northern 
and central Gulf of California tonight and diminish by Fri.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh E-NE gap winds are over the Papagayo region and extends to
near 90W, and moderate offshore winds extending across the 
waters offshore of northern Nicaragua and the Gulf of Fonseca. 
Seas across this area are 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle offshore 
winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to 
moderate SW winds are elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Seas of
4-7 ft prevail across the area waters. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are still lingering across the near and offshore 
waters south of Panama and Costa Rica.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected across 
and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through Thu 
night, pulsing to strong speeds at night. Moderate W to NW swell
across the regional waters will continue through Thu. Scattered 
thunderstorms across the near and offshore waters of Panama and 
Costa Rica will shift westward and well offshore by Thu.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure NW of the area waters has begun to nosed
southeastward across the northern waters, to the waters offshore
of Baja California Sur. The pressure gradient between this area 
of high pressure and the remnant trough of Ramon near 19N131W to
09N127W, as well as the monsoon trough and ITCZ, is supporting 
fresh to locally strong winds N of the the monsoon trough/ITCZ 
to 26N and west of 110W. Light to gentle winds are N of 25N. 
Gentle to moderate winds are found S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. 
NW swell dominates the discussion waters W of 100W, with seas in 
the 7-9 ft range in fading NW swell. Seas of 6-7 ft are noted 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, The high pressure to the northwest will build 
SE across the region tonight and Thu and freshen NE to E winds 
south of 25N into the weekend. NW swell across the waters from 
10N and 25N will continue to move westward across the waters 
through the next few days. The swell area will expand in coverage
by the weekend as winds increase from the pressure gradient.
Swell impacting waters south of 10N will subside by the weekend. 

$$
AReinhart