000 AXPZ20 KNHC 282131 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Nov 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure has built across the eastern slopes of Mexico in the wake of a frontal boundary over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting minimal gale conditions over Tehuantepec this afternoon, with peak seas currently near 12 ft. Strong to near gale-force winds will persist through Wed, with gale-force winds expected through early Wed. Seas will peak around 13 ft this evening through tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07.5N76W to 08.5N83W to 07N98W to 11N112W to low pressure 1011 mb near 09.5N122.5W TO 07.5N126W. The ITCZ continues from 07.5N126W to beyond 08.5N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 02.5N to 07.5N E of 86W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 15N between 87W and 117W, and from 05N to 09.5N between 118W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event. Strong N to NE winds currently extend downwind of Tehuantepec to near 13N, with seas 8 to 12 ft in this area. Elsewhere, moderate N-NW winds are noted over the northern and southern Gulf of California. Seas are 2 to 4 ft through the basin. Light to gentle northerly winds prevail elsewhere across the Baja California offshore waters N of 22N, becoming moderate NE winds S of 22N over the outer portion of the offshore zones off southern and SW Mexico, extending south and west of the Revillagigedo Islands. NW swell is beginning to subside across the Baja waters, where seas are in the 6-8 ft, except 8 to 10 ft from 21N to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Active showers and thunderstorms continue offshore of SW Mexico from western Guerrero to Colima. For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec region will continue to support strong to near-gale force gap winds over and downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed evening, with winds to gale-force expected over these waters through early Wed. Large NW swell over the waters west of Baja California, and SW to the Revillagigedo Islands, continue to subside today. High pressure will begin to build across the region from the NW on Wed to bring a return to moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the Baja offshore waters Wed afternoon through the end of the week. As this occurs, strong westerly gap winds are expected to spill into the Gulf of California Wed afternoon and night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE gap winds are over the Papagayo region this afternoon, extending northward across the southern offshore waters of Nicaragua. Fresh winds there extend downwind of Papagayo to near 90W. Light to gentle offshore winds are elsewhere north of 12N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are over the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4-6 ft in SW swell prevail across the area waters, except 6-7 ft in the Papagayo region. A cluster of strong thunderstorms has persisted all day across the near and offshore waters south of Panama and eastern Costa Rica, and are currently E of 87W. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected across and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through Wed night, pulsing to strong speeds each night. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds will continue between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands tonight through midday Wed before diminishing. Moderate W to NW swell is entering the regional waters this afternoon and will continue through Thu. Active convection is expected to persist across the near and offshore waters of Panama and Costa Rica through Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak high pressure prevails across the northern waters, to the southeast of a weakening cold front that extends from 32N128W to 29N138W. The pressure gradient to the south is yielding moderate to locally fresh trade winds between the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 22N and west of 110W. Light to gentle winds are N of 22N. Gentle NW to W winds follow the cold front across the NW portion. Gentle to moderate winds are found S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. NW swell dominates the discussion waters W of 110W, with seas in the 8-11 ft range. Seas of 6-8 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the NW swell will continue to subside slowly, with seas greater than 8 ft covering much of the waters west of 110W through tonight before subsiding more quickly Wed. High pressure to the northwest will begin to build across the region by Thu and freshen NE to E winds south of 25N into the weekend. Associated seas are expected to build to 8-10 ft and potentially higher to the S of 25N Fri night into Sat. $$ Stripling