000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272131 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Nov 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front has moved across most of the Gulf of Mexico, and extends across the northern Yucatan Peninsula to the central Bay of Campeche this afternoon. High pressure building across the eastern slopes of Mexico in the wake of the front has tightened the pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec area, and strong gap winds to near 30 kt prevail across Tehuantepec and extend offshore to near 12.5N. Strong to near gale-force winds in the Gulf will persist through Wed, with gale-force winds expected to begin this evening and continue through Tue night. Seas will peak around 13 ft with this event. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N76W to 09N82W to 10N105W to low pressure 1011 mb near 10N120W. The ITCZ continues from 07.5N125W to beyond 08.5N140W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 18N between 93W and 111W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 08.5N between 115W and 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event. Strong gap winds to 30 kt prevail this afternoon across Tehuantepec and are expected to increase to gale-force this evening. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are noted over the northern Gulf of California, where seas are 4 to 5 ft. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail over the southern Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere, though reaching moderate speeds over the outer portion of the offshore zones off southern and SW Mexico, just to the south and west of the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range in NW swell west of the Baja California peninsula, extending SW to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas of 5-8 ft prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Active convection persists across the offshore waters of SW Mexico between Guerrero and Jalisco, ahead of an eastward moving upper level trough extending from Baja California Sur southwestward into the tropical Pacific. For the forecast, high pressure building across the eastern slopes of Mexico will support strong to near-gale force gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed, with gale-force over these waters expected to commence this evening and continue through Tue night. NW swell dominating the waters west of Baja California, and SW to the Revillagigedo Islands, will start to slowly subside tonight. High pressure will begin to build across the region Wed to bring a return to moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the Baja offshore waters late Wed through the end of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong gap winds are over the Papagayo region, with fresh winds extending downwind of the Gulf to near 90W. Light to gentle offshore winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds are noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail, except 5-7 ft in the Papagayo region. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected across and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through Wed night, pulsing to strong speeds each night. Gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough will increase to moderate to locally fresh speeds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands tonight through Tue night. Moderate W to NW swell will move through the regional waters Tue through Thu. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The 1010 mb remnant low of Ramon is near 14N126W, moving west near 10 kt. Fresh winds are noted within 45 nm the NE semicircle of the low. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 23N. Light to gentle winds are N of 23N. Light to gentle winds are noted S of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds S of the ITCZ. NW swell dominates the discussion waters W of 120W, with seas in the 9-12 ft range. Seas of 6-8 ft are noted elsewhere E of 110W. For the forecast, the NW swell will continue to propagate southeastward, and subside very slowly, with seas greater than 8 ft covering much of the waters west of 115W through Tue evening before subsiding more quickly through Wed. High pressure to the northwest will begin to build across the region by Thu and act to fresh NE to E winds south of 25N into the weekend. $$ Stripling