331 
AXPZ20 KNHC 271720
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Nov 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front is moving across
the Gulf of Mexico this morning. High pressure building across 
the eastern slopes of Mexico in the wake of the front has started
to tighten the pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec area, and
strong gap winds to near 30 kt prevail across Tehuantepec this
morning and extend offshore to near 13.5N. Strong to near gale- 
force winds in the Gulf will persist through Wed, with gale-force
winds expected to begin this evening and continue through Tue 
night. Seas will peak around 12 ft with this event. Please read 
the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml 
for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N77W to 10N83W to 08N95W to 
10.5N114W to 09.5N123W. The ITCZ continues from 09.5N123W to
beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is noted from 01.5N to 06.5N E of 81W, and from 06N top 09N
between 112W and 133W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted from 08N to 18.5N between 95W and 
112W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec
gale-force gap wind event. Strong gap winds to 30 kt prevail this
morning across Tehuantepec and are expected to increase to gale-
force this evening.

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are noted over the northern 
Gulf of California, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to locally 
moderate winds prevail over the southern Gulf. Light to gentle 
winds prevail elsewhere, though reaching moderate speeds over the
outer portion of the offshore zones off southern and SW Mexico. 
Seas are in the 8-11 ft range in NW swell west of the Baja 
California peninsula, extending SW to the Revillagigedo Islands. 
Seas of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere over the open waters off 
Mexico. Active convection persists across the offshore waters of
SW Mexico between Guerrero and Jalisco, and is gradually shifting
closer to the coast, ahead of an approaching upper level trough
moving across Baja California.

For the forecast, high pressure building across the eastern 
slopes of Mexico will support strong to near-gale force gap winds
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed. Winds will reach gale-
force over these waters this evening through Tue night. NW swell
dominating the waters west of Baja California, and SW to the 
Revillagigedo Islands, will start to subside tonight. High
pressure will begin to build across the region Wed to bring a
return to moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the Baja
offshore waters late Wed through the end of the week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong gap winds are over the Papagayo region, with 
fresh winds extending downwind of the Gulf to 90W. Light to 
gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to
locally moderate winds are noted between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere S of 
the monsoon trough. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail, except 5-7 ft in the
Papagayo region.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected across 
and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through at 
least Wed night, pulsing to strong speeds each night. Gentle 
winds south of the monsoon trough will increase to moderate to 
locally fresh speeds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands 
today through Tue night. Moderate W to NW swell will move through
the regional waters Tue through Thu.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The 1008 mb remnant low of Ramon is near 14N125.5W. Fresh winds 
are noted within 45 nm N semicircle of the low. Gentle to 
moderate winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 23N.
Light to gentle winds are N of 23N. Light to gentle winds are 
noted S of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds S of
the ITCZ. NW swell dominates the discussion waters W of 120W, 
with seas in the 9-13 ft range. Seas of 6-8 ft are noted 
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the NW swell will continue to propagate 
southeastward, with seas greater than 8 ft covering much of the 
waters west of 115W through Tue evening before starting to 
gradually subside.

$$
Stripling