000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252037 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Nov 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ramon is centered near 15.3N 123.1W at 25/2100 UTC, moving north at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 12 ft within 30 nm in the northern semicircle of center. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed within 90 to the northeast of the center. Ramon will continue to move in a slow north to north- northeast motion through the remainder of today. By Sun, a weaker and shallow Ramon is forecast to turn west- northwestward and accelerate along the southern edge of a building ridge to the north. Divergent flow aloft may allow Ramon to maintain tropical storm strength today, but conditions become less favorable for development tonight and Ramon is expected to weaken to a remnant low on Sun with dissipation shortly thereafter. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Twenty-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 08N95W to 1010 mb low pressure near 10N110W. The ITCZ extends from 10N110W to 08N130W to 10N135W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 82W and 84W, and from 14N to 16N between 102W and 104W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Earlier fresh westerly gap winds into the northern Gulf of California have diminished, becoming moderate northerly winds ahead of a weak cold front moving through the lower Colorado River valley. Gentle breezes prevail elsewhere in Mexican offshore waters north of 20N. Meanwhile, NW swell of 6 to 8 ft is reaching the waters off Baja California Norte beyond 90 nm. Farther south over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, strong gap winds from overnight have diminished to moderate winds speeds. Gentle breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere off southern Mexico. For the forecast, NW swell over the far offshore waters beyond 90 nm off Baja California Norte will reach the waters off Cabo San Lazaro early Sun, and the Revillagigedo Islands by late Sun. Moderate to fresh winds will follow a weak cold front moving into the northern Gulf of California, which will stall and dissipate Sun. Looking ahead, high pressure building across the eastern slopes of Mexico will help tighten the pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec area early next week, supporting strong to near- gale force winds over these waters through the middle of next week, possible pulsing to gale force Mon night through Tue night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh gap winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo. Light winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate winds are noted between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands, with light to gentle winds elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands, with seas of 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse at night across and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through the period. Winds may reach strong speeds early next week. Gentle to moderate winds are expected S of the monsoon trough through Sun when winds will diminish to light to gentle speeds. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see above for more information on Tropical Storm Ramon. Gentle to moderate winds persist outside of Ramon, except for moderate to fresh trade winds from 10N to 15N west of 135W. NW swell continues to move into the waters mainly to the northwest of a line from off Baja California Norte to near 08N140W. Southerly cross-equatorial swell is noted farther south, mainly south of 08N, supporting combined seas of 6 to 8 ft. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft elsewhere in mixed swell. For the forecast, the NW swell will continue to propagate southeastward through the weekend. Seas greater than 8 ft will cover much of the waters west of 120W into early next week. Winds and seas associated with Ramon are expected to cover a relatively small and localized area, with seas mixing with longer period NW swell. $$ Christensen