000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251546
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Nov 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Ramon is centered near 15.1N 123.3W at 25/1500
UTC, moving north at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Peak seas are near 12 ft. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed within 90 to 120 nm to the northeast of the center. 
Ramon will continue to move in a slow north to north- northeast 
motion through the remainder of today. By Sun, a weaker and 
shallow Ramon is forecast to turn west- northwestward and 
accelerate along the southern edge of a building ridge to the 
north. Divergent flow aloft may allow Ramon to maintain tropical 
storm strength today, but conditions become less favorable for 
development tonight and Ramon is expected to weaken to a remnant 
low on Sun with dissipation shortly thereafter. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by 
the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Twenty-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 08N95W to 10N110W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N120W to 08N130W to 10N135W to beyond
10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N
between 80W and 83W, from 10N to 12N between 91W and 93W, and 
from 14N to 16N between 102W and 104W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong gap winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
with seas of 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails west of 
the Baja California peninsula. The pressure gradient between the 
ridge and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate winds
in the northern Gulf of California. Seas in these waters are 3-5
ft. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail over the 
rest of the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are noted 
over the remainder of the open waters off Mexico, reaching 
locally moderate speeds off SW Mexico. Seas are in the 6-9 ft 
range west of Baja California Norte, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong gap winds near the 
coast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish today. NW swell 
over the far offshore waters off Baja California Norte will reach
the waters off Cabo San Lazaro early Sun, and the Revillagigedo 
Islands by late Sun. Looking ahead, high pressure building across
the eastern slopes of Mexico will help tighten the pressure 
gradient across the Tehuantepec area early next week, supporting 
fresh to near-gale winds over these waters through the middle of 
next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh gap winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of
Papagayo. Light winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. 
Moderate winds are noted between Colombia and the Galapagos 
Islands, with light to gentle winds elsewhere S of the monsoon 
trough. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail between Colombia and the 
Galapagos Islands, with seas of 4-6 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse at night 
across and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through
the period. Winds may reach strong speeds early next week. 
Gentle to moderate winds are expected S of the monsoon trough 
through Sun when winds will diminish to light to gentle speeds. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see above for more information on Tropical Storm Ramon.

Outside of Ramon, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail north 
of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 20N, with gentle to moderate winds 
N of 20N. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds 
prevail. NW swell is spreading across the NW waters, with seas 
currently peaking near 13 ft over the waters near 30N140W. Seas 
of 6-9 ft are elsewhere over waters north of a line from
Guadalupe Island to 10N120W. Elsewhere, seas of 6-8 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the NW swell will propagate southeastward 
through the weekend. Seas greater than 8 ft will cover much of 
the waters west of 120W into early next week. Winds and seas 
associated with Ramon are expected to cover a relatively small 
and localized area, with seas mixing with longer period NW swell.

$$
Christensen