000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250856
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Nov 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Ramon is centered near 14.6N 123.0W at 25/0900 
UTC, moving north at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 
1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 
kt. Peak seas are near 12 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is observed from 12N to 18N and between 118W 
and 123W. The latest forecast is for Ramon to move slowly northward
or north-northeastward during the next 24 hours before turning 
west- northwestward and accelerating. The system may have a 
brief period of intensification today, with weakening expected 
to begin tonight. Ramon is then forecast to become a remnant low
on Sunday with dissipation shortly thereafter. Please read the 
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the
latest Twenty-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N94W to 10N103W to 
10N115W. The ITCZ extends from 10N125W to 09N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 11N E of 88W, from 09N
to 12N between 91W and 99W, and from 07N to 10N between 132W and
140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong gap winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
with seas of 5-6 ft. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails west of 
the Baja California peninsula. The pressure gradient between the 
ridge and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate to 
fresh winds in the northern Gulf of California. Seas in these 
waters are 3-5 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft 
prevail over the rest of the Gulf of California. Light to gentle
winds are noted over the remainder of the open waters off Mexico,
reaching locally moderate speeds off SW Mexico. Seas are in the 
6-9 ft range west of Baja California Norte, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong gap winds near the 
coast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish today. NW swell 
over the far offshore waters off Baja California Norte will reach
the waters off Cabo San Lazaro early Sun, and the Revillagigedo 
Islands by late Sun. Looking ahead, high pressure building across
the eastern slopes of Mexico will help tighten the pressure 
gradient across the Tehuantepec area early next week, supporting 
fresh to near-gale winds over these waters through the middle of 
next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh gap winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of
Papagayo. Light winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. 
Moderate winds are noted between Colombia and the Galapagos 
Islands, with light to gentle winds elsewhere S of the monsoon 
trough. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail between Colombia and the 
Galapagos Islands, with seas of 4-6 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse at night 
across and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through
the period. Winds may reach strong speeds early next week. 
Gentle to moderate winds are expected S of the monsoon trough 
through Sun when winds will diminish to light to gentle speeds. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see above for more information on Tropical Storm Ramon.

Outside of Ramon, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail N of
the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 20N, with gentle to moderate winds N
of 20N. S of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds
prevail. NW swell is spreading across the NW waters, with seas 
currently peaking near 14 ft over the waters near 30N140W. Seas 
of 6-9 ft are elsewhere over the NW waters. Elsewhere, seas of 
6-8 ft prevail. 

For the forecast, the NW swell will propagate southeastward 
through the weekend. Seas greater than 8 ft will cover much of 
the waters west of 120W by the end of the weekend into early next
week. Winds and seas associated with Ramon are expected to cover
a relatively small and localized area.

$$
AL