239 AXPZ20 KNHC 250246 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Nov 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Ramon is centered near 13.8N 122.6W at 25/0300 UTC, moving north at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 11 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 12N to 17N and between 119W and 123W. The current forecast shows the system moving on a northward track the next 24 hours followed by a shift to a NW motion. The intensity forecast has the system with a brief period of intensification overnight, with weakening expected to begin tomorrow. Ramon is then forecast to become a remnant low on Sunday with dissipation shortly thereafter. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Twenty-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N92W to 10N100W to 10N115W. The ITCZ extends from 10N128W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 11N E of 88W, and from 06N to 10N between 122W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails west of the Baja California peninsula. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh southerly winds in the northern Gulf of California. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail over the rest of the Gulf of California. Light to locally gentle winds are found over Baja California Norte. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range west of Baja California Norte, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong gap winds will prevail near the coast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sat. NW swell over the far offshore waters off Baja California Norte will reach Guadalupe Island by late today, the waters off Cabo San Lazaro early Sun, and the Revillagigedo Islands by late Sun. High pressure building across the eastern slopes of Mexico will help tighten the pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec area early next week, supporting fresh to near-gale winds over these waters through the middle of next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh gap winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo. Light winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Moderate winds are noted between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands, with gentle winds elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Seas of 5-7 ft are noted between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands, with seas of 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse at night across and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through the period. Winds may reach strong speeds early next week. Gentle to moderate winds are expected S of the monsoon trough through Sun when winds will diminish to light to gentle speeds. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see above for more information on newly upgraded Tropical Storm Ramon. Outside of Ramon, gentle to moderate winds prevail W of 120, with light to gentle winds E of 120W. NW swell is spreading across the NW waters, with seas currently peaking near 13 ft over the waters near 30N140W. Seas of 6-9 ft are elsewhere over the NW waters. Elsewhere, seas of 6-8 ft prevail. For the forecast, the NW swell will propagate southeastward through the weekend, gradually increasing seas. Seas greater than 8 ft will covering much of the waters west of 120W by the end of the weekend into early next week. Winds and seas associated with Ramon are expected to cover a relatively small and localized area. $$ AL