000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232206
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Nov 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2110 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central East Pacific Tropical Depression Twenty-E:
Strong convection occurring near Twenty-E this morning has
deteriorated this afternoon. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is seen within 30 nm northwest and 240 nm southeast of
the center. Afternoon scatterometer data also showed wind speeds
just below tropical storm force. Peak seas within these winds are
assumed to be around 10 ft in NW swell. Twenty-E is drifting W-NW
this afternoon and a continued slow northward motion is expected
over the new few days. Twenty-E is expected to briefing intensify
to minimal Tropical Storm strength tonight and then weaken to
Tropical Depression strength on Fri night. Please refer to the 
latest NHC Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High 
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 11N76W to 08N91W to 12.5N112W. 
The ITCZ begins from near 08.5N126W to beyond 05.5N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 11.5N between
79W and 90W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted 
within 210 nm N and 180 nm S of the ITCZ between 126W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Afternoon ASCAT data showed that gap winds across Tehuantepec had
diminished to 25 kt by noon time, and associated seas downstream
are gradually subsiding to 8-10 ft. 

Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between high pressure west of 
the Baja California peninsula and low pressure across NW Mexico 
is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds across the outer
waters of Baja California Norte, where seas are 5 to 7 ft in new
NW swell. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere west of 
the Baja California peninsula, with light to gentle winds over 
the remainder of the open waters off SW Mexico. Seas are in the 
4-6 ft range in NW swell. Scattered moderate to strong convection
has persisted all afternoon within 250 nm of the coast of SW 
Mexico between 98W and 101.5W. Inside the Gulf of California, 
winds have shifted to the south today at 10 kt or less.

For the forecast, strong gap winds extending across and well S 
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will steadily diminishing through this
evening, then remain fresh to strong within 45 nm of the coast 
through Sat. NW swell will move into the offshore waters off 
Baja California Norte tonight, reach Guadalupe Island by late 
Fri, the waters off Cabo San Lazaro early Sun, and the 
Revillagigedo Islands by early Mon. Broad low pressure N of the 
region will induce moderate to fresh SW to W gap winds across the
northern and central Gulf of California tonight through early 
Sat. A weak cold front will approach the offshore waters of Baja 
California Norte on Sun. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate offshore gap winds are over and downwind the Gulf of 
Papagayo this afternoon, as depicted by midday ASCAT data.  
Light winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to 
moderate winds are found between Colombia and the Galapagos 
Islands, with light to gentle winds elsewhere S of the monsoon 
trough. Seas of 7-8 ft are well offshore Guatemala in 
northwesterly swell generated by the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec 
gap wind event, with seas of 4-6 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, swell generated by the recent Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event will impact the waters well offshore 
western Guatemala through this evening before subsiding quickly 
tonight. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse at night across and 
well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through the 
period. Gentle to moderate winds are expected S of the monsoon 
trough through Sun when winds will diminish to light to gentle 
speeds. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see above for more information on Tropical Depression 
Twenty-E.

Elsewhere, high pressure across the NE Pacific is centered to the
north of 40N, producing a modest pressure gradient across the
regional waters. Only moderate winds are noted north of the 
ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W, with seas of 6-9 ft. Gentle winds 
are N of 20N, with seas of 6-8 ft. Gentle to locally moderate 
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the swell impacting the western portions of the 
area will diminish through early tonight. New NW swell will 
enter the northern waters after midnight and gradually increase
seas through the weekend. This swell will spread across the 
western waters, with seas greater than 8 ft covering much of the 
waters west of 120W by the end of the weekend into early next 
week. Winds and seas associated with T.D. Twenty-E are expected
to cover a relatively small and localized area.

$$
Stripling