000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230815 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Nov 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0815 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure along the eastern slopes of Mexico and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting a gale- force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Peak seas are currently near 13 ft. The area of high pressure will start weaken and shift eastward today. This will loosen the pressure gradient with winds diminishing below gale- force early this morning, and further diminishing through the day. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. Central East Pacific (EP94): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located a little more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula have increased during the past several hours. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days while it drifts generally northward. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development over the weekend. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N91W to 1007 mb low pressure near 12N121W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 83W and 89W, from 07N to 13N between 113W and 125W, and from 04N to 09N between 130W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features Section for details on an ongoing gale- force gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region. The pressure gradient between high pressure west of the Baja California peninsula and a 1008 mb low pressure off Mazatlan, Mexico is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds across the Gulf of California. Wave heights are in the 3 to 4 ft range. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted west of the Baja California peninsula, with light to gentle winds over the remainder of the open waters off SW Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast, gale-force gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue into early this morning, with winds steadily diminishing through tonight. NW swell will move into the far offshore waters off Baja California, reaching Guadalupe Island by late Fri, the waters off Cabo San Lazaro Sun, and the Revillagigedo Islands by Mon. A weak cold front will approach the offshore waters of Baja California Norte by Sun, supporting moderate to fresh SW winds over the northern Gulf of California Sun and Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds are over and downwind the Gulf of Papagayo, with light winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are found between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands, with light to gentle winds elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Seas of 8-10 ft are well offshore Guatemala in northerly swell generated by the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event, with seas of 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, swell generated by an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will impact the waters well offshore western Guatemala through late today. Gentle to moderate winds are expected S of the monsoon trough through Sun when winds will diminish to light to gentle speeds. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through tonight. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see above for more on Invest EP94, with a medium chance for TC genesis in the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are noted north of the monsoon trough to 20N and west of 120W, with seas of 6-9 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are N of 20N, with seas of 6-8 ft. Gentle to locally moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, the swell impacting the area will diminish through late today. A new set of NW swell will enter the northern waters tonight. This swell will spread across the western waters, with seas greater than 8 ft covering much of the waters west of 120W by the end of the weekend into early next week. $$ AL