000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222042 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Nov 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building behind a front over the Gulf of Mexico is supporting very strong to gale force northerly winds in the southwest Gulf of Mexico, which are funneling through the Chivela Pass of the Tehuantepec Isthmus in southern Mexico. Strong to near-gale force winds are being reported at Coatzacoalcos, Mexico on the northern entrance to the Tehuantepec Isthmus. This is leading to an ongoing gale- force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, which is expected to continue through early Thu morning. Peak seas are 12 ft and are expected to reach around 15 ft today. On Thu, gap winds will gradually diminish through the day and then more quickly Thu evening with seas subsiding below 8 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 13N110W to 1007 mb low pressure near 11N120W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident within 60 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 118W and 124W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... set of See the Special Features Section for details on an ongoing gale- force gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region. Isolated showers and thunderstorms active earlier this morning near the Tres Marias Islands have moved onshore. The showers and thunderstorms are associated with a small, 1009 mb low pressure off Mazatlan, Mexico. The gradient between the low pressure and higher pressure over the northeast Pacific is supporting fresh NE winds across the Gulf of California, as confirmed by recent scatterometer satellite imagery. Wave heights remain generally 3 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California due to limited fetch across the width of the basin. Some of the winds are penetrating lower lying gaps in the terrain over the Baja California peninsula, mainly south of Punta Eugenia, supporting shorter-period NE wind waves mixing with longer-period NW swell to create combined seas of 5 to 7 ft off Baja California. For the forecast, fresh winds over the central Gulf of California will diminish early in the evening. Looking ahead, NW swell will move into the far offshore waters off Baja California, reaching Guadalupe Island by late Fri, the waters off Cabo San Lazaro Sun, and the Revillagigedo Islands by Mon. A weak cold front will approach the offshore waters of Baja California Norte by Sun, supporting moderate to fresh SW winds over the northern Gulf of California Sun and Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Variable light to gentle winds prevail across the Central America offshore waters N of 07N while gentle to moderate S to SW are ongoing elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft N of 07N and 5-7 ft S of 07N, including the region between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, as a weak pressure pattern prevails across the western Caribbean. For the forecast, swell generated by an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue to impact the waters well offshore western Guatemala through late Thu. Winds will remain gentle to moderate S of the monsoon trough or S of 07N through Sun when winds will diminish to light to gentle speeds. In the Gulf of Papagayo, NE winds of moderate to fresh speeds will pulse through Thu night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The exposed low level center of a 1007 mb low pressure (Invest EP94) is showing up near 12N121W in a sheared environment, with scattered showers and thunderstorms pushed to the southeast of the low. The low is embedded within the monsoon trough, and is drifting to the north- northwest. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas to 8 ft are within 90 nm of the low. Elsewhere recent scatterometer and altimeter data moderate to fresh winds west of 120W, with mainly 5 to 7 ft, except 8 to 9 ft north of 07N and west of 135W in NW swell. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere east of 120W. For the forecast, environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some gradual development of the low pressure near 12N121W during the next few days while it drifts generally northward. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development this weekend and early next week. Elsewhere, swell will diminish through late Thu. A new round of NW swell will enter the waters with 8 to 12 ft combined seas covering much of the area west of 120W, and mixing with shorter period waves associated with the low pressure near 12N121W as it drifts more to the northwest. $$ Christensen