000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220951 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Nov 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front is moving across the Gulf of Mexico and extends from Apalachicola, Florida to the Bay of Campeche this morning. Strong high pressure building behind the front is supporting very strong to gale force northerly winds in the SW Gulf of Mexico, which are funneling through the Chivela Pass. This is leading to an ongoing gale-force Tehuantepec gap wind event, which is expected to continue through early Thu morning. Peak seas are 12 ft and are expected to reach around 15 ft today. On Thu, gap winds will gradually diminish through the day and then more quickly Thu evening with seas subsiding below 8 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 12N100W to low pres near 10N120W 1007 mb to 06N132W. The ITCZ continues from 06N132W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 09N E of 93W, from 04N to 15N between 101W and 123W, and from 05N to 11N between 124W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... set of See the Special Features Section for details on an ongoing gale- force gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region. The pressure gradient between 1038 mb high pressure centered over the Great Basin, and lower pressure along W Mexico supports moderate to fresh NE gap winds along the Baja California Peninsula offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas in this region are 5-8 ft, highest between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. This pattern is also leading to fresh to locally strong N to NE winds along the Gulf of California, where peak seas remain 5 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters with seas to 4 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, the fresh NE winds across the Baja California offshore waters will continue through this morning, then winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Thu night and to light to gentle speeds early Fri through Sun night. Strong winds in the Gulf of California will slowly diminish to gentle to moderate early on Thu. The gale-force gap winds event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to continue through early Thu morning. Afterward, fresh to near gale-force winds will steadily diminish through Thu night. New NW swell with seas in excess of 8 ft will enter the Baja California Norte offshore waters Fri afternoon and propagate SE to the Baja Sur waters through Sun night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Variable light to gentle winds prevail across the Central America offshore waters N of 07N while gentle to moderate S to SW are ongoing elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft N of 07N and 5-7 ft S of 07N, including the region between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, as a weak pressure pattern prevails across the western Caribbean. For the forecast, winds will remain gentle to moderate S of the monsoon trough or S of 07N through Sun when winds will diminish to light to gentle speeds. In the Gulf of Papagayo, NE winds of moderate to fresh speeds will start to pulse today and prevail through Sun night. Otherwise, swell generated by an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will enter the waters well offshore western Guatemala later today and persist through Thu evening. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Low pressure of 1007 mb (Invest EP94) is embedded within the monsoon trough near 10N120W, and is drifting northward. Moderate to fresh winds and seas to 8 ft are within 90 nm of the low. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some gradual development during the next few days, and become less conducive for development by this weekend or early next week. N of 20N and E of 130W, decaying NW swell with seas to 9 ft extends into the Mexican offshore waters. Seas across this area will subside below 8 ft on Wed. Otherwise, NW swell is starting to enter the far NW open waters in association with an approaching cold front. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, the NW swell entering the far northwest waters will propagate SE to raise seas to 8 ft or higher near 130W the next couple of days before subsiding Thu evening. New northerly swell will start propagating across the northern waters Fri and prevail through the weekend. INvest EP94 is expected to drift northward over the next few days and maintain seas around 8 ft across the northern semicircle. $$ Ramos