000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220345 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Nov 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front is moving across the Gulf of Mexico extending from the Florida Panhandle to just south of Veracruz, Mexico. Strong high pressure building behind the front is supporting very strong northerly winds across the western Gulf of Mexico, which are funneling through the Chivela Pass. This is leading to an ongoing gale-force Tehuantepec gap wind event, which is expected to continue through early Thu morning. Peak seas are expected to reach around 15 ft Wed. On Thu, gap winds will gradually diminish through the day and then more quickly Thu night. Seas will gradually subsided to below 8 ft downstream by Thu evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 12N100W to low pres near 10N120W 1007 mb to 06N135W. The ITCZ continues from 06N135W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 09N E of 93W, from 04N to 15N between 101W and 123W, and from 05N to 11N between 124W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... set of See the Special Features Section for details on the upcoming gale-force gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region. The pressure gradient between 1042 mb high pressure centered over the Great Basin, and lower pressure across NW Mexico supports fresh to locally strong NE gap winds along the Baja California Peninsula offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro where seas are 6 to 9 ft, highest offshore of Punta Eugenia. This pattern is also leading to strong and gusty N to NE winds across the Gulf of California, where seas remain 6 to 9 ft range across north portions and 4 to 6 ft south and central portions. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters with seas to 5 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, the fresh to locally strong NE winds across the Baja California offshore waters will continue through Wed morning, before weakening, when winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds. Strong winds in the Gulf of California tonight will slowly diminish to gentle to moderate speeds on Wed. Gale-force gap winds event will begin quickly this evening across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and continue through early Thu morning. Afterward, fresh to near gale-force winds will steadily diminish through Thu night. New NW swell with seas in excess of 8 ft will enter the Baja California Norte offshore waters Fri afternoon and propagate SE to the Baja Sur waters through early Sun. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Variable light to gentle winds prevail across the Central America offshore waters and the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, as a weak pressure pattern prevails across the western Caribbean. Seas across the area waters are 4-6 ft in southerly swell. For the forecast, light to gentle SW to W winds will prevail S of 10N through Fri, and then increase to moderate speeds W of Ecuador and in the Gulf of Papagayo Fri night, continuing through the weekend. Moderate NE gap winds across the Papagayo region are expected to pulse to fresh speeds each night Wed through Sun. Otherwise, swell generated by an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will enter the waters well offshore western Guatemala late Wed and persist through midday Thu. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Low pressure of 1007 mb (Invest EP94) is embedded within the monsoon trough near 10.5N120W, and is drifting northward. Moderate to fresh winds and seas to 8 ft are within 120 nm of the low. Development of this system, if any, is likely to be slow to occur while it drifts generally northward during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly less conducive for development by the latter part of this week. A surface trough is over the far western waters, along 139W, supporting a broad area of moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds from 12N to 21N between 125W and 139W. Seas of 7 to 9 ft cover this region. N of 20N and E of 130W, decaying NW swell with seas to 9 ft extends into the Mexican offshore waters. Seas across this area will subside below 8 ft on Wed. Otherwise, NW swell is starting to enter the far NW open waters in association with an approaching cold front. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, the NW swell entering the far northwest waters will propagate SE to raise seas to 8 ft or higher near 130W the next couple of days before subsiding Thu evening. New northerly swell will start propagating across the northern waters Fri and prevail through the weekend. INvest EP94 is expected to drift northward over the next few days and maintain seas around 8 ft across the northern semicircle. $$ Ramos