929 
AXPZ20 KNHC 212205
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Nov 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2110 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front moving the Gulf 
of Mexico extends from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to just
south of Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon. Strong high pressure 
building behind the front and across the western Gulf of Mexico,
will support very strong northerly winds that will funnel 
through the Chivela Pass and lead to the next gale force 
Tehuantepec gap wind event, which is expected to begin quickly this
evening, and continue through early Thu morning. Peak seas are
expected to reach around 15 ft Wed. On Thu, gap winds will 
gradually diminish through the day and then more quickly Thu 
night. Seas will gradually subsided to below 8 ft downstream by
Thu evening. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N72.5W to 10.5N81.5W TO
14.5N91.5W to low pres near 10.5N120W 1007 mb to 05.5N138W. The 
ITCZ continues from 05.5N138W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01.5N to 08.5N 
between 81W and 91W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to 
strong convection is noted from 06.5N to 14.5N between 101W and 
122.5W and from 04.5N to 09N between 129W and 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... set of

See the Special Features Section for details on the upcoming 
gale-force gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region.

The pressure gradient between 1042 mb high pressure centered 
over the Great Basin, and lower pressure across NW Mexico 
supports fresh to locally strong NE gap winds along the Baja 
California Peninsula offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro where 
seas are 6 to 9 ft, highest offshore of Punta Eugenia. This 
pattern is also leading to strong and gusty N to NE winds across 
the Gulf of California, where seas remain 6 to 9 ft range across
north portions and 4 to 6 ft south and central portions. Light 
to gentle winds prevail elsewhere in the S and SW Mexican 
offshore waters with seas to 5 ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, the fresh to locally strong NE winds across the Baja 
California offshore waters will continue through Wed morning, 
before weakening, when winds will diminish to gentle to moderate 
speeds. Strong winds in the Gulf of California tonight will 
slowly diminish to gentle to moderate speeds on Wed. Gale-force 
gap winds event will begin quickly this evening across the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec, and continue through early Thu morning. 
Afterward, fresh to near gale-force winds will steadily diminish 
through Thu night. New NW swell with seas in excess of 8 ft will 
enter the Baja California Norte offshore waters Fri afternoon and
propagate SE to the Baja Sur waters through early Sun. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Variable light to gentle winds prevail across the Central 
America offshore waters and the waters between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands, as a weak pressure pattern prevails across the
western Caribbean. Seas across the area waters are 4-6 ft in 
southerly swell.

For the forecast, light to gentle SW to W winds will prevail S 
of 10N through Fri, and then increase to moderate speeds W of 
Ecuador and in the Gulf of Papagayo Fri night, continuing through
the weekend. Moderate NE gap winds across the Papagayo region 
are expected to pulse to fresh speeds each night Wed through Sun.
Otherwise, swell generated by an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec 
gap wind event will enter the waters well offshore western 
Guatemala late Wed and persist through midday Thu. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pressure of 1007 mb (Invest EP94) is embedded within the 
monsoon trough near 10.5N120W, and is drifting northward. 
Moderate to fresh winds and seas to 8 ft are within 120 nm of the
low. Development of this system, if any, is likely to be slow to
occur while it drifts generally northward during the next couple
of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to become 
increasingly less conducive for development by the latter part of
this week. A surface trough is over the far western waters, along
139W, supporting a broad area of moderate to locally fresh NE to
E winds from 12N to 21N between 125W and 139W. Seas of 7 to 9 ft
cover this region. N of 20N and E of 130W, decaying NW swell 
with seas to 9 ft extends into the Mexican offshore waters. Seas
across this area will subside below 8 ft on Wed. Otherwise, NW 
swell is starting to enter the far NW open waters in association 
with an approaching cold front. Gentle to moderate southerly winds
are south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the NW swell entering the far northwest waters will
propagate SE to raise seas to 8 ft or higher near 130W the next 
couple of days before subsiding Thu evening. New northerly swell 
will start propagating across the northern waters Fri and prevail
through the weekend. INvest EP94 is expected to drift northward
over the next few days and maintain seas around 8 ft across the
northern semicircle.

$$
Stripling