516 AXPZ20 KNHC 211603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Nov 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Strong Winds: Strong high pressure is building well north of the area over the Great Basin of the western U.S., following a frontal boundary moving through northern Mexico. This resulted in strong to near-gale force winds with frequent gusts to gale force in the northern portion of the Gulf forecast last night but is gradually diminishing below gale-force this morning. Wave heights are 7 to 9 ft along most of the gulf to near La Paz. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front moving over the NW Gulf of Mexico will reach the central Gulf by this afternoon. Strong high pressure will build behind the front and across the western Gulf of Mexico, supporting very strong northerly winds that will funnel through the Chivela Pass and lead to the next gale force Tehuantepec gap wind event, forecast to begin this evening and continue through Thu morning. Afterward, fresh to near gale force winds will gradually diminish through Thu night. Seas within this period will be in the 8 to 16 ft range. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N72.5W to 09N87W to11.5N98W to low pres near 10.5N120W 1007 mb to 03.5N138W. The ITCZ continues from 03.5N138W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 01.5N to 10N between 78W and 91W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 210 nm either side of trough between 103W and 136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... set of See the Special Features Section for details on slowly improving conditions over the Gulf of California and an upcoming gale- force gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region. The pressure gradient between 1040 mb high pressure centered over the Great Basin, and lower pressure across NW Mexico supports moderate to locally fresh NE gap winds along the Baja California Peninsula offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro where seas are in the 6 to 9 ft, highest N of Cabo San Lazaro. This pattern is also leading to strong and gusty N to NE winds across the Gulf of California where seas are in the 5 to 9 ft range. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters with seas to 5 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NE winds W of Baja California will continue through Wed morning when winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds. Strong winds in the Gulf of California will slowly diminish to gentle to moderate speeds this afternoon through Wed afternoon. The next gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin this evening and continue through Thu morning. Afterward, fresh to near gale force winds will gradually diminish through Thu night. Otherwise, new NW swell with seas in excess of 8 ft will enter the Baja California Norte offshore waters Fri evening and propagate to Cabo San Lucas during the weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds are across the Central America and the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, as a weak pressure pattern prevails across the Caribbean. Seas across the area waters are 4-6 ft in southerly swell. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail through today and then increase to moderate speeds W of Ecuador and in the Gulf of Papagayo through early in the weekend. Gap NE winds in the Papagayo region are forecast to pulse to fresh speeds at night Wed through Sun. Otherwise, swell generated by an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will enter the waters well offshore western Guatemala late Wed through early Thu. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Low pressure of 1007 mb (Invest EP94) is embedded within the monsoon trough near 10.5N120W. Moderate to fresh winds and seas to 8 ft are within 120 nm of the low. Development of this system, if any, is likely to be slow to occur while it drifts generally northward during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly less conducive for development by the latter part of this week. A surface trough is over the far western waters, supporting a broad area of fresh NE to E winds from 12N to 21N between 125W and 138W. Seas 7 to 9 ft over this region. N of 24N and E of 125W decaying swell with seas to 9 ft will subside late today. Otherwise, NW swell is starting to enter the far NW open waters in association with an approaching cold front. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, the NW swell will propagate SE to near 130W the next couple of days before subsiding Thu evening. New northerly swell will start propagating across the northern waters Fri and prevail through the weekend. $$ Stripling