000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211002
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Nov 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0850 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of California Gale Warning: High pressure is building well 
north of the area over the Great Basin of the western U.S., 
following a frontal boundary moving through northern Mexico. 
This is resulting in strong to near-gale force winds with 
frequent gusts to gale force in the northern portion of the Gulf
forecast to continue through this morning. Wave heights are 7 to
9 ft along most of the gulf to near La Paz.

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front moving over the NW
Gulf of Mexico will reach the central Gulf by this afternoon. 
Strong high pressure will build behind the front and across the 
western Gulf of Mexico, supporting very strong northerly winds 
that will funnel through the Chivela Pass and lead to the next 
gale force Tehuantepec gap wind event forecast to begin this  
evening and continue through Thu morning. Afterward, fresh to 
near gale force winds will gradually diminish through Thu night. 
Seas within this period will be in the 8 to 16 ft range.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to a 1008 mb low pres 
near 10N119W to 05N133W. Scattered moderate convection is from 
01S to 10N E of 91W, from 07N to 15N between 101W and 114W, and from
03N to 12N between 124W and 138W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 06N to 12N between 116W and 124W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features Section for details on an ongoing gale
warning over the northern Gulf of California and an upcoming 
gale-force gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region.

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure centered
north of the area, and lower pressure along Mexico supports 
moderate to locally fresh NE winds along the Baja California 
Peninsula offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro where seas are in 
the 5 to 8 ft, highest N of Punta Eugenia. This feature is also 
leading to an ongoing gust to gale force wind event along the 
Gulf of California where seas are in the 5 to 9 ft range. Light 
to gentle winds prevail elsewhere in the S and SW Mexican 
offshore waters with seas to 5 ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NE winds W of Baja 
California will continue through Wed morning when winds will
diminish to gentle to moderate speeds. Frequent gust to gale 
force winds in the Gulf of California will diminish to strong 
speeds this afternoon and to gentle to moderate speeds Wed 
afternoon. The next gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec is forecast to begin this evening and continue 
through Thu morning. Afterward, fresh to near gale force winds 
will gradually diminish through Thu night. Otherwise, a new set
of NW swell with seas in excess of 8 ft will enter the Baja 
California Norte offshore waters Fri evening and propagate to
Cabo San Lucas during the weekend. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle variable winds are across the Central America and
the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands with seas in
the 4-6 ft in southerly swell.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail through
today and then increase to moderate speeds W of Ecuador and in 
the Gulf of Papagayo through early in the weekend. Gap NE winds 
in the Papagayo region are forecast to pulse to fresh speeds at
night Wed through Sun. Otherwise, swell generated by an upcoming
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event may enter the waters well 
offshore western Guatemala late Wed through early Thu. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pressure of 1008 mb (Invest EP94) is embedded within the 
monsoon trough near 10N119W. Moderate to fresh winds and seas to
8 ft are within 120 nm of the low. Development of this system, 
if any, is likely to be slow to occur while it drifts generally 
northward during the next couple of days. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to become increasingly less conducive for
development by the latter part of this week. A surface trough is
over the far western waters, supporting a broad area of fresh NE
to E winds from 11N to 22N between 125W and 139W. Seas 7 to 9 ft
over this region. N of 24N and E of 125W decaying swell with seas
to 9 ft will subside late today. Otherwise, NW swell is starting
to enter the far NW open waters in association with an
approaching cold front. Gentle to moderate winds are south of 
the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the NW swell will propagate SE to near 130W the
next couple of days before subsiding Thu evening. A new set of
northerly swell will start propagating across the northern waters
Fri and prevail through the weekend.

$$
Ramos