000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210920
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Nov 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0850 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of California Gale Warning: High pressure is building well 
north of the area over the Great Basin of the western U.S., 
following a frontal boundary moving through northern Mexico. 
This is resulting in strong to near-gale force winds with 
frequent gusts to gale force in the northern portion of the Gulf
forecast to continue through this morning. Wave heights are 7 to
9 ft along most of the gulf to near La Paz.

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front moving over the NW
Gulf of Mexico will reach the central Gulf by this afternoon. 
Strong high pressure will build behind the front and across the 
western Gulf of Mexico, supporting very strong northerly winds 
that will funnel through the Chivela Pass and lead to the next 
gale force Tehuantepec gap wind event forecast to begin this  
evening and continue through Thu morning. Afterward, fresh to 
near gale force winds will gradually diminish through Thu night. 
Seas within this period will be in the 8 to 16 ft range.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to a 1008 mb low pres 
near 10N119W to 05N133W. Scattered moderate convection is from 
01S to 10N E of 91W, from 07N to 15N between 101W and 114W, and from
03N to 12N between 124W and 138W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 06N to 12N between 116W and 124W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features Section for details on an ongoing gale
warning over the Gulf of California and an upcoming gale-force
gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region.

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure centered
north of the area, and lower pressure along Mexico supports 
moderate to locally fresh NW winds along the Baja California 
Peninsula offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro where seas are in
the 5 to 9 ft, highest N of Punta Eugenia. This feature is also
leading to an ongoing gust to gale force wind event along the Gulf
of California where seas are in the 8 to 9 ft range. Light to 
gentle winds prevail elsewhere in the S and SW Mexican offshore 
waters with seas to 5 ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds W of Baja 
California will continue through Wed morning. Frequent gust to
gale force winds in the Gulf of California will diminish to
strong speeds Tue afternoon and to gentle to moderate speeds Wed
afternoon. The next gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Tue evening and continue through
Thu morning. Afterward, fresh to near gale force winds will 
gradually diminish through Thu night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle variable winds are across the Central America and
the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas of 
5-6 ft prevail over the discussion waters.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail through Tue
and then increase to moderate speeds W of Ecuador and in the Gulf
of Papagayo through early in the weekend. Swell generated by an 
upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event may enter the waters 
well offshore western Guatemala late Wed through early Thu. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pressure of 1008 mb (Invest EP94) is embedded within the 
monsoon trough near 09N119W. Fresh to locally strong winds are 
found in the vicinity of the low, with seas to 8 ft. Development
of this system, if any, is likely to be slow to occur while it 
drifts generally northward during the next couple of days. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly less
conducive for development by the latter part of this week. Moderate
to locally fresh winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. 
Gentle to moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, a new set of northerly swell will propagate 
through the waters north of 24N and east of 129W tonight. Seas 
will gradually subside through mid-week. A weakening cold front 
will approach 30N140W tonight along with northwest swell.

$$
Ramos