000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210344
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Nov 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of California Gale Warning: High pressure is building well 
north of the area over the Great Basin of the western U.S., 
following a frontal boundary moving through northern Mexico. 
Cool, dry air is funneling through the Colorado River Valley into
the Gulf, supporting strong to near-gale force winds with 
frequent gusts to gale force forecast to continue in the northern
portion of the Gulf through Tue morning. A gale warning remains  
in effect for this area. Wave heights are 7 to 9 ft along most of
the gulf to near La Paz.

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front moving over the NW
Gulf of Mexico will reach the central Gulf by Tue afternoon. 
Strong high pressure will build behind the front and across the 
western Gulf of Mexico, supporting very strong northerly winds 
behind the front that will funnel through the Chivela Pass and 
lead to the next gale force Tehuantepec gap wind event forecast 
to begin by Tue evening and continue through Thu morning.
Afterward, fresh to near gale force winds will gradually 
diminish through Thu night. Seas within this period will be in 
the 8 to 14 ft range.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to a 1008 mb low pres 
near 09N119W and to 04N134W. Scattered moderate convection is 
from 06N to 12N between 116W and 122W, from 04N to 10N between
122W and 132W. Widely scattered moderate convection is evident 
from 05N to 12N between 100W and 113W, and from 00N to 07N
between 132W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure centered
north of the area, and lower pressure along Mexico supports 
moderate NW winds along the Baja California Peninsula offshore 
waters as well as in the Gulf of California. Seas are 7 to 10 ft 
off the Baja Peninsula, highest N of Punta Eugenia. In the Gulf 
of California, seas are still in the 2 to 4 ft range, although 
fresh to strong NW winds have likely already started over the far
northern Gulf associated with the approaching cold front. Light 
to gentle winds prevail elsewhere in the S and SW Mexican 
offshore waters with seas to 5 ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds W of Baja 
California will continue through today and the NW swell will
subside tonight. Over the Gulf of California, in addition to the
frequent gusts to gale force, strong to near gale force winds 
funneling along the Gulf of California today will bleed through 
the Baja mountain gaps and lead to fresh to strong NE winds and 
seas to 9 ft N of Cabo San Lazaro through Wed morning. The entire
Gulf of California can expect strong NW winds today through Wed,
along with rough seas. The next gale- force gap wind event in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Tue evening and 
continue through Wed night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are found N of 10N, with gentle to 
moderate winds elsewhere. Seas of 5-6 ft prevail over the 
discussion waters.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 
10N through Tue night. Moderate southwest winds offshore Costa 
Rica will diminish this evening under a weak pressure pattern. 
Swell generated by an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event
may enter the waters well offshore western Guatemala late Wed 
through early Thu. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pressure of 1009 mb (Invest EP94) is embedded within the 
monsoon trough near 09N119W. Fresh to locally strong winds are 
found in the vicinity of the low, with seas to 8 ft. Some slow 
development of this system is possible during the next couple of 
days while it drifts westward or northwestward. By the middle and
latter parts of the week, environmental conditions are forecast 
to become less conducive for development.

Elsewhere, a surface trough extends from 10N133W to 20N137W. 
Fresh NE winds and seas to 9 ft are found within 120 nm N of the
trough axis. Moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere N of 
the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the 
monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the fresh NE trade winds will gradually 
diminish this afternoon, but swell will linger as a new set of 
northerly swell will propagate through the waters north of 24N 
and east of 129W today. Seas will gradually subside through mid- 
week. A weakening cold front will approach 30N140W this evening. 
Northwest swell with this front will move into the far northwest 
waters starting tonight.

$$
Ramos