839 
AXPZ20 KNHC 201615
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Nov 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of California Gale Warning: High pressure is building well
north of the area over the Great Basin of the western U.S.,
following a cold front moving into the northern Gulf of
California. Cool, dry air will funnel through the Colorado River
Valley into the northern Gulf, supporting strong to near-gale
force winds with frequent gusts to gale force through today. A
gale warning is in effect accordingly. Wave heights will build to
8 ft as the winds increase. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will come off the
coast of Texas tonight and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by 
Tue afternoon. Strong high pressure will build behind the front 
and across the western Gulf of Mexico, supporting very strong 
northerly winds behind the front will funnel through the Chivela 
Pass and lead to the next gale force Tehuantepec gap wind event 
forecast to begin by Tue evening and continue through Wed night. 
Seas within this period will be in the 8 to 14 ft range. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N110W to 1008 mb low
press near 09N118W to another 1008 mb low pressure area near 
07N130W, to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N 
to 10N between 105W and 108W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is evident from 08N to 11N between 115W and
117W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure centered over
Washington and Oregon, and lower pressure along Mexico supports  
moderate to fresh NW winds along the Baja California Peninsula 
offshore waters as well as in the Gulf of California. Seas are 7
to 10 ft off the Baja Peninsula, highest N of Punta Eugenia. In 
the Gulf of California, seas are still in the 2 to 4 ft range,
although fresh to strong NW winds have likely already started
over the far northern Gulf associated with the approaching cold
front. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere in the S and SW 
Mexican offshore waters with seas to 5 ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds W of Baja 
California will continue through today and the NW swell will
subside tonight. Over the Gulf of California, in addition to the
frequent gusts to gale force, strong to near gale force winds 
funneling along the Gulf of California today will bleed through 
the Baja mountain gaps and lead to fresh to strong NE winds and 
seas to 9 ft N of Cabo San Lazaro through Wed morning. The entire
Gulf of California can expect strong NW winds today through Wed,
along with rough seas. The next gale- force gap wind event in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Tue evening and 
continue through Wed night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are found N of 10N, with gentle to 
moderate winds elsewhere. Seas of 5-6 ft prevail over the 
discussion waters.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 
10N through Tue night. Moderate southwest winds offshore Costa 
Rica will diminish this evening under a weak pressure pattern. 
Swell generated by an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event
may enter the waters well offshore western Guatemala late Wed 
through early Thu. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pressure of 1008 mb (Invest EP94) is embedded within the 
monsoon trough near 09N118W. Fresh to locally strong winds are 
found in the vicinity of the low, with seas to 10 ft according to
recent altimeter data. Some slow development of this system is 
possible during the next couple of days while it drifts westward 
or northwestward. By the middle and latter parts of the week, 
environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive 
for development.

Elsewhere, a surface trough extends along 133W from 12N to 22N. 
Fresh NNE winds and seas to 9 ft are found within 120 nm N of the
trough axis. Moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere N of 
the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the 
monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the fresh NE trade winds will gradually 
diminish this afternoon, but swell will linger as a new set of 
northerly swell will propagate through the waters north of 24N 
and east of 129W today. Seas will gradually subside through mid- 
week. A weakening cold front will approach 30N140W this evening. 
Northwest swell with this front will move into the far northwest 
waters starting tonight.

$$
Christensen